By Fazal Mehmood
It is remarkable that the present civilian government in Pakistan has lasted nearly four years, the longest since the nation’s creation in 1947. However, it seems, the Asif Ali Zardari government has now run out of luck. On Wednesday, it was on a collision course with the army, the only constant in Pakistan’s public affairs.
Since the army has always held the whip hand in any confrontation with the civilian authorities, there were genuine fears that the days of the Zardari government may be numbered. However, unlike the previous crises the current one has another major player in the fray. The role of the Pakistani Supreme Court could be crucial to the way the present imbroglio pans out, though the least unwelcome denouement could be the advancing of the national elections which are otherwise not due till next year. The trigger for the current crisis was the anonymous memo given by a Washington based businessman of Pak origins seeking the intervention of the US in preventing a feared coup against the civilian government.
The Memogate is being probed by the Pak Supreme Court. The latest twist in the Memogate probe came when prime minister Geelani took umbrage at the defence secretary forwarding the replies of the Army and the ISI chiefs to the apex court without first clearing the same with him. As the head of the civilian government, it was incumbent on Lt. Gen. (Retd) Naeem Khalid Lodhi to get the approval of his civilian bosses before filing the replies of the Army Chief Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani in the Supreme Court.
Therefore, the dismissal of Lodhi for insubordination was fully in order, though General Kayani considered it as a personal affront since Lodhi was his proxy in the defence ministry. What complicated matters further was the interview that Geelani gave to a Chinese publication criticizing the Army Chief and the ISI head Lt. Gen. Ahmed Shuja Pasha for violation of the Constitution. The Army Chief was visiting China when the publication put out the Geelani interview. Immediately, the Army issued a terse message warning of “grievous consequences” for the alleged defiance of the army and the ISI. Quite clearly, that was the nub of the crisis now, as it had been all through the Pak history.
The army believes that a civilian government can subsist so long as it is subservient to it. The moment it seeks to assert its independence, tanks roll down the short distance that separates the Rawalpindi GHQ from Islamabad. Admittedly, the civilian government is not blameless either. Prime minister Geelani has dilly dallied in implementing the Supreme Court order regarding a thorough probe into the long- pending corruption charges against Zardari. The political compulsions of Geelani in reopening the probe against his party chief and head of the State do not justify the defiance of the apex court. In this context, the ticking off of Geelani by the Supreme Court may not have been out of place. Geelani feigned a feeling of hurt at the court’s remarks, though by refusing to take up the probe against Zardari he may have hurt his own cause and given an additional handle to the army to put down the civilian set- up. The failure of the politicians to put their own house in order only fuels the ambitions of the generals to take matters in their own hands. General Kayani is said to be reluctant to assume direct responsibility for administering Pakistan, especially at a time when the internal and external situation is in a terrible flux. But the Supreme Court could make things difficult personally for Zardari if he insists on continuing as President even after the probe in corruption charges against him is revived.
Pakistan is in a very precarious state at this point of time. Internal strife and jihadi terror haunt it while the Americans are desperately seeking to enlist its support in ending their ill- conceived mission in Afghanistan. In such a complex situation, the Supreme Court too will have to move gingerly, even if its concern in enforcing accountability of President Zardari and others in power is commendable.
On January 16 a full 17- member bench of the SC will hear the government’s response to each of the six options laid down by a five- member bench on January 10. (1) The prime minister, Yousaf Raza Gillani, can be disqualified under Constitutional Article 62 (1) from remaining a member of parliament because he has seemingly broken his good Muslim “ameen” oath by “willfully disobeying” several orders of the SC. (2) The PM, law minister, law secretary and other executive functionaries can be sentenced for contempt of court for the same reason and thereby lose their seats in parliament. (3) The SC can appoint a Commission to execute whatever judgment is finally passed. (4) If the President of Pakistan, Asif Zardari, wishes to plead indemnity from criminal accountability or decisions and actions taken by the SC in relation to his person, he has to plead and win his case before the SC. (5) The chairman of National Accountability Bureau (NAB), Admiral (retd) Fasih Bokhari, has seemingly defied the SC by not proceeding against certain people and may accordingly be removed as provided in law. (6) The SC may exercise judicial restraint on all such matters if the government is agreeable to ordering a swift election to determine the will of the people in this regard.
But this would still leave the prime minister and president vulnerable to action on other matters like appointments, transfers and postings by the SC at any subsequent stage. The government can sacrifice the prime minister, law minister et al and elect loyal substitutes in their place who would enable the coalition government and parliament to hang on with the skin of their teeth while billing themselves as political martyrs at the altar of the “Punjabi military- judiciary establishment”. The PM recently insisted that parliament would stay regardless of whether he stays or goes. This option would comply with the SC’s orders at one level, and mount a challenge to it on the other, compelling the SC to become even more aggressive and focused on enforcing its writ. This option would extend the political crisis and conceivably strain the coalition partnership, leading to an ignominious end to the Zardari government. The government can continue to refuse to comply with the orders of the SC and adopt a defiant posture by pitting parliament against the SC. In the event, the SC has only one option to enforce compliance. Under Constitutional Article 190 it can order General Kayani to step into the fray and do the needful. INAV