New Delhi: In the state of play in contemporary geopolitics a country can only derive power from robust and sustained economic performance, which is also capable of funding and supporting civilian and military needs, says a noted commentator.
“The strength of an army, that denotes power, comes from the strength of its treasury,” says noted geo-economist Sanjaya Baru, drawing from what was said two millennia ago by philosopher-strategist Chanakya and in recent era by former US President John Kennedy.
“It is economics that determines the nation’s power today. At the same time, economics alone cannot sustain a country’s power,” Baru said in a lecture on “comprehensive national power in the era of geopolitics” at the Noida Sports and Cultural Club Friday evening.
A former media advisor to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, he drew from the examples of three countries to push home his point — the former Soviet Union, Japan and China — to link power with economics.
He said the power that was once derived by former Soviet Union eventually collapsed as it kept on adding to its military might without paying attention to the state of its economy. “The Soviet economy could just not sustain the military expansion.”
Japan, on the other hand, concentrated on its economy and even eventually became the world’s third largest economy. The country also has hidden military power, Baru said.
“But the ability to deploy power — the political ability — has not been displayed in the post cold-war period,” added Baru, who currently serves the International Institute for Strategic Studies as a director for geo-economics and strategy.
China is what it is today since it has deployed its economic progress to also sustain and expand its military might — and this is what is required as India seeks to address some basic issues like poverty and hunger that affects millions of its people, he said.
“Among other things, India must improve its tax-to-GDP (gross domestic product) ratio to at least 20 percent, grow at a robust pace of more than 8 percent over 30-40 years and ensure a current account surplus. Otherwise, it cannot sustain itself.”
According to him, when he was serving the National Security Advisory Board as a member, the government had informally agreed to a suggestion from this influential group of cap of 3 percent of GDP on defence spending.
What he alluded to was that if this cap has to be maintained, while also expanding the military might, there was no option left, but to grow its GDP faster. “The idea is to project that you have the power to hit back, when hit. That is a deterrent.”
He said it was also important to shed the dogma of economic independence and take on the concept of inter-dependence given the state of play in today’s world. “From Turkey to Japan, China is number one trading partner with every country, but for Bhutan,” he said.
“So when there is a conflict between India and China, where do you think will the chips fall,” Baru said, adding, “Even a country like Japan, with which China has had uneasy ties for over a century, I wager where it will lean.”
An author, commentator and former professor of economics, Baru said China also managed to attract so much of foreign investment in the country — so much more than India can ever hope to get — that it has become indispensable to the overseas investor.
“The game is not about protecting your independence but to create interdependence.” (IANS)