Thursday, March 28, 2024
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Weakened Modi vs unsteady Rahul

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By Amulya Ganguli

It will not be till 2018 that the BJP and the Congress, purportedly the two poles of Indian politics, will meet in a frontal confrontation in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan.

Before that, there will be a face-off in Assam next year, but the north-eastern state is not politically important enough for the outcome to make a significant impact on the national scene although it might show which way the wind is blowing.

Otherwise, the elections next year in Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Kerala – Puduchery, too, is not all that important – are likely to reinforce the prevailing regional trends with the AIADMK/DMK, Trinamool Congress and the UDF/LDF continuing to rule the roost.

The BJP’s absence as a major political force in these states makes it a mere bystander while the Congress will sink or swim with the DMK in Tamil Nadu, maintain its No. 3 position behind the Trinamool Congress and the Left in West Bengal and be a winner or loser in Kerala as alternately in all these years.

Beyond these fairly predictable political currents, the enigmatic X-factor is the leadership of the two “national” parties – although they, too, have virtually become regional outfits because they do not exist in large parts of the country.

Where the BJP is concerned, the party’s leadership question would have been considered settled till the Bihar results came out. Now, Narendra Modi cannot be totally certain although he will remain his party’s best bet because of the TINA (there is no alternative) factor.

He may be able to ward off the charge of the veterans. But, unless there is a perceptible upturn in the economic scene, he will keep on losing the support of the non-saffron middle class which rooted for him last year and gave him the requisite push, along with the saffronites, to help him attain power.

Besides, there is no knowing what fresh problems will be created for him by Yogi Aditynath and Co. As it is, the Swadeshi Jagran Manch and other affiliates of the RSS are opposing his foreign investment initiatives.

Much to the delight of the prime minister’s enemies, therefore, Modi will have to fight on at least three fronts – the party elders who are unhappy about their marginalization, the fundamentalists who fear that the BJP is turning away from the pro-Hindu agenda and the anti-reforms brigade who are against the opening up of the economy.

If Modi can overcome these challenges, who will he face as his primary opponent from the Congress because it is still not possible to say whether Sonia Gandhi or Rahul will lead the charge.

Rahul may become the party president and be the prime ministerial candidate – there will not be another experiment with a docile regent to keep the seat warm for the crown prince. But how secure will be his political position three years down the line is difficult to say.

For one thing, the Congress is again likely to bring up the rear in the U.P. elections of 2017 behind the two big regional players – the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party. Such a status will not enhance Rahul’s reputation.

For another, the period between now and 2018 is unlikely to refurbish Rahul’s leadership credentials by removing doubts about his maturity or understanding of economics. For a third, the party itself may be somewhat unstable since it is unlikely to notch up any major electoral success in the next two years.

Is it possible, therefore, that Sonia will offer herself as the prime ministerial candidate since Rahul will be unable to assure a certain victory? Since the Congress cannot think beyond the Nehru-Gandhis despite their dwindling charisma, it has to project someone from the family with the best possible chance of winning.

The decline of the BJP and the Congress means that the political space will open up for the regional players even if their influences are confined to their respective states. At the moment, bets will be placed on Nitish Kumar as the most likely regional leader after H.D. Deve Gowda who can take a shot at the prime minister’s position.

But, as in the Karnataka leader’s case, he has to be the leader of a coalition. But, whether his party, the Janata Dal (United), can play the part of a unifying central force is hard to say. The Congress will have to be a part of such an alliance, as in DeveGowda’s and I.K. Gujral’s cases. But that subsidiary role will be another sign of its declining status.

It is possible, however, that the BJP will remain the front-runner till the next general election. But, it will be under a weak Modi who will be nowhere near as powerful as he was in 2014. It will be hoping against hope, therefore, to believe that he will arouse the same level of expectations as he did last year.

Throughout its post-independence history, India has had the misfortune of muddling through because of the inability of its leaders to resolve satisfactorily the country’s political and economic problems. This unfortunate trend is unlikely to end soon. (IPA Service)

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