By Sandra Albert and Glenn Kharkongor
Decision-making rests on the twin factors of assumptions and absolutes. Arriving at the best balance between these two elements needs analytical and astute leadership. The Meghalaya government, by and large, have been on top of the crisis situation.
The notification of April 6 is a succinct one-page list of 9 points, but the distillation of evolving pandemic trends, balanced with regional needs and realities, would have entailed much weighing of the evidence, and assessing the pros and cons of each possible decision.
Doom and gloom specialists might argue for a more cautious approach, but over-caution is the easy way out. It takes acumen and courage to proactively move forward towards getting the state back to normal.
Strategies for the post-lockdown phase are trickling in from the Centre and states. The Prime Minister has consulted with the states for a ‘staggered’ stepdown, and some states have begun to consider the details. Meghalaya is perhaps the first state to set out its post-lockdown plans.
Why are the Nine Points right? The guiding principles for these steps towards normalcy are evidently based on scientific, social and economic reasons.
Future Course of the Pandemic
The behaviour of the pandemic has been charted in the up-down curves of many countries and after the acute phase and peak there is a definite slow-down in all countries, including those with light restrictions.
Even the countries that have been most badly hit such as Italy and Spain, are seeing a slowdown.
It is apparent that the cycle is not consistent across countries. There are many aspects to this lack of uniformity. Some are natural factors eg climate; social factors such as crowding and collectivist cultures; and manmade factors such as varying governmental responses and restrictions to the pandemic.
Epidemiologists in India are beginning to surmise that the pandemic will have a muted course in India.
The upclimb in positive cases has been slower than many countries, similar to some other Asian countries and in contrast to the steep climbs seen in the West. Even in the UK and US, some regions have begun to see a slowdown and the dire predictions of the Imperial College model now seems unlikely.
India’s slow rise will perhaps come to a low peak in a few weeks after which there will be a slow decrease. Delhi is projected to reach its peak on April 8 and Maharashtra on April 10. Without significant community spread, the chief strategy will continue to be mitigation and containment.
Gradual up-downs may be seen till the vaccine is available.
Dr Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, USA, has advised that even after the peak, mitigation is key to prevent a rebound. He has repeated himself consistently, “the only tool and best tool is mitigation”.
Continuation of
Mitigation Measures
The steps for Meghalaya have taken into consideration not only the likely course of the pandemic, but also social and economic factors. While rural markets are relatively safe, the notification indicates the precautions to be followed. These would be applicable to MGNREGA projects and construction sites.
Re-opening of government offices from April 15 indicates that the government will show by example the restoration of normalcy at the workplace. Much of the restoration of civil society activities are dependent on the functioning of government offices and agencies. Masks and other physical distancing measures should be followed in government offices.
Travel into the state is still curbed, the two examples are interstate traffic and delay in permitting Meghalaya citizens to return to the state till the end of the month.
Continuing the closure of educational institutions will also delay the return of out-of-state students.
These steps sum up the main strategies. The have the benefit of restoring certain sectors to normal function and very importantly, provide relief to the poor.
The lockdown has badly hurt the poorest classes, and only inconvenienced the middle class. But further lockdown will imperil the middle class as well.
The middle class will need relief soon. They need to get back to work, ie the private commercial and services sectors must reopen, and students need to get back to school.
Government and posh private schools can absorb the lockdown, other private schools and colleges have already cut salaries, affecting middle class teacher families.
If all goes well
After May 1, further steps could include:
1. Opening of all commercial establishments: the entire supply chain needs to be in motion, otherwise the economy and livelihoods cannot be revived.
2. Opening of schools and colleges: unlike mainland India, which have summer holidays, opening of educational institutions in Meghalaya is more important as several weeks have already been lost.
To minimise crowding in schools, in the first month, schools could reopen only for grades 9-12 as these students need time to prepare for board exams.
Colleges and universities need to reopen as their students need to finish their degrees to get into the job market.
A survey of 1262 MLCU students from last week shows that 88% are able to work on their online assignments, but 65% want to get back to class, even though they are mentored through the internet and WhatsApp by their teachers.
3.Easing up on in-travel restrictions: travellers who are not from the hotspot areas (now 20 districts) could be quarantined, till the hotspot areas have been contained.
Others should be allowed in without restriction, as they have already been through the 21-day lockdown. The tourism and hospitality industry will take a long time to recover, but a beginning needs to be made.
4. Continued restrictions on mass gatherings such as festivals, religious congregational services and other crowd events for another month.
What if there is a positive case?
If a positive case is identified in Meghalaya, the usual procedures will apply and it will not require a pullback from any of the stepdown measures. It would be treated just like any other contagious disease and contacts traced, tested and treated if needed.
One unknown variable is being now quantified: according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, USA, perhaps 25% of infected persons will show a positive Covid test but not get the illness. This is a similar situation to TB in India.
Many of us have had a Mantoux Test, a test for exposure to TB in which a tiny bit of tuberculin protein is injected into the skin of the forearm. Almost all Indians will test positive even though we have never had TB. It has been prudent for the government to have taken a stepwise approach. If the pandemic takes an unexpected twist, there is time for course correction. But by taking a proactive approach the government has given the state a heads-up, and everyone can start planning for themselves and their families.