New Delhi: From 500 cases to 57 lakh. Six months after a nationwide lockdown, COVID-19 is spreading fast across the length and breadth of India with more testing and developments on the vaccine front but no clarity on when the disease will be controlled, say scientists.
On March 24, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a 21-day lockdown for the entire country, stating it was the only way to break the chain of infection. At the time, the number of people infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus was a little over 500 and the death toll 12. Six months on, India has the second highest number of cases in the world after the US.
US-based economist and epidemiologist Ramanan Laxminarayan said there is a “hidden epidemic” happening even as the pandemic spreads. He noted that the infection is spreading widely across all parts of the country, including into rural India, although the visibility is lower in places where testing is weak or inadequate. “We will likely see some increases in states like UP and Bihar but only if RT-PCR testing increases. Right now, we have a hidden epidemic in many parts of the country which have weak health systems,” the director of the Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy in Washington told PTI. “While the infection is spreading at a slower rate, it is definitely not under control,” Laxminarayan added.
However, he expects the number of cases to start coming down in the next month or two as India approaches some sense of “population immunity”. “Given the precautions that are being taken both by the government and individuals, the epidemic has slowed down. This would mean that we would see a sustained plateau for a while before the cases start coming down,” Laxminarayan said.
Immunologist Satyajit Rath sounded a note of caution and said India is still at the stage of spreading viral infection across communities. The infection has never really been under control in India, he said.
“The early harsh prolonged lockdown somewhat delayed the large-scale establishment of the infection. But ‘control’ has never been a possibility. So we are certainly going to see growth in the infection numbers for quite a long while yet,” Rath added.
Immunologist Vineeta Bal concurred with Rath, saying the Indian government did not learn much despite experiences from other parts of the world and announced complete “draconian lockdowns” that were extended for long periods.
“Leadership in the country lacked in its vision and could not get a sense of the ground realities for poor people; or maybe did not care,” Bal, from Pune’s Indian Institute of Science, Education and Research, told PTI. “Because of major undermining of public health infrastructure for decades, our epidemic handling preparedness was very, very poor. That could have been the only justifiable reason for imposing the lockdown,” Bal added.
“The lack of early testing really cost the country. With better and more expanded testing early on, that India was fully capable of, the lockdown could have been more targeted rather than been nationwide,’’ Laxminarayan said.
Discussing the vaccine, on which rest the hopes of billions of people globally, the experts said there are almost 200 efforts across the world to build and test candidates.
In India, there are at least eight vaccine being developed, two of which have entered Phase 2 trials or the penultimate stage.
“In all likelihood, a number of vaccines will emerge. Optimistically, the first vaccines will probably be licensed by the end of this calendar year,” Rath said. “Further, the first-generation vaccines are likely to provide significant but not complete protection, and it will not be clear how long protection will last and how well booster vaccination will work,” he said. (PTI)
