India’s largest state, set for assembly polls in the next few weeks, is also set for a major political churning that will have major implications for national politics as well. The resignation of state labour minister Swamy Prasad Maurya and three other MLAs from the ruling BJP in Uttar Pradesh on Tuesday might have come as a bombshell on the saffron party that, till a week ago, was confident about retaining power in the state. The first sign that all was not well with the BJP came when Prime Minister Narendra Modi cancelled a poll rally in Lucknow a few days ago, citing “likely rainfall (in the coming days).” So much seems to be happening on the political turf there days after the Election Commission announced the polls.
The resignation of the minister and some MLAs could perhaps be out of a realization that the BJP might not give them the tickets this time. For, the exits from the ruling party came shortly after chief minister Yogi Adityanath held a meeting with Union home minister Amit Shah on the selection of party candidates for the assembly polls, in the absence of party chief JP Nadda who was down with Covid-19 infection. More resignations from the BJP and shift of saffron leaders to the SP are predicted. Whatever be the reason for this, SP chief Akhilesh Yadav set for a tough fight with Yogi Adityanath is smiling broadly. He has got the much-needed morale boost at the right time. Reports are also that the Apna Dal, a constituent of the NDA and sharing power with the BJP in Delhi, is building bridges with the SP on poll-eve. This is amid strong perceptions that the ground-level political mood is shifting against the BJP.
If “Modi” was the “magic” for the BJP to win the polls in the past, this might not be so in future – more so as an anti-incumbency wave might erupt after the BJP’s five-year rule in the state. Irrespective of what opinion polls keep predicting about UP, a combination of factors are at work to let down the BJP there; the communal equations, for one. What the BJP did in the past to win elections was to mobilize funds to the maximum and hold a high-voltage campaign with PM Modi in the forefront. Put together, this was a lethal combination. Chances are that the saffron party will overcome the initial embarrassment and get back to power. But, given the present conditions, this will be an uphill task.