Simply put, when it comes to Ladakh, it will now be status quo ante – a scenario similar to what existed previously; meaning 2020 or before the big clash between India and China took place in Galwan short of a war. The two nations have reached a “deal” that facilitates patrolling by the respective armies in their areas in the way they used to do four years ago. China and India will now “work jointly” to implement the deal, as the Chinese foreign ministry has put it. This deal raises several apprehensions, though.
The explanation is that the two nations were in close communication through diplomatic and military channels to sort out the issues along India’s northern border. Yet, notably, this deal has been signed shortly before Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s departure to Russia for the BRICS summit, in which Russia, China and India will, among others, confabulate on various issues of common economic interest. The Russian involvement in this deal is clear. Notably, NSA Ajit Doval and China’s foreign minister Wang Yi took matters close to an agreement recently when they met in the Russian city of St Petersburg. In other words, the existing ‘alliance’ between Russia and China, against the US, will be sought to be strengthened with India’s involvement. A marked shift in policy is spectacular on India’s part. India attempted in recent years to edge closer to the US. That scenario might be dampened in the event of the present deal being finalised help from Russia. What needs to be stressed here is that while China is never dependable, Russia under Vladimir Putin had not been a close ally of India the way New Delhi and Moscow had been since the Nehru era. The end of the Cold War also meant the end of the old muscle power of Russia. Under Putin, Russia is now facing serious odds due to the misadventure that the Russian leader attempted against Ukraine. Russian military ware had at one time been worth a try, but the efficacy of these weapons is no more the same. Engaging China through Russia might not be a wise move. The present deal, in the overall context, raises eyebrows.
By contrast, the US is a dependable ally vis-a-vis India’s engagements with China, for the reason that both Washington and New Delhi have been facing issues from China on a regular basis. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s extensive outreach to global players through his regular visits may not have produced the desired results in the past over 10 years. Diplomacy is a sugar-coated, yet hard-edged bargain. Rubbing shoulders by itself means little. Hope is that India would not fall into a trap vis-a-vis its current engagements with the Reds.
