By Abhijit Patwardhan
China’s economic outlook apart, the questions which have of late engaged the attention of most China watchers is how it would pursue its strategic policies and postures in areas of its known interest like Southeast Asia, India along with its neighbours and America’s global pursuits. One cannot give straight forward answers to these complex issues. As it is, the polity of communist China is highly complex. It has an imperial expansionist path and Maoist ambitious global vision. It is a historical fact that a strong China invariably tends to be more assertive in the neighbourhood and beyond in pursuit of it s economic goals and strategic targets. This basic historic fact needs to be constantly kept in mind while dealing with China and assessing its foreign policy. I am reminded here of Mao’s famous dictum which said: “Signal Left, turn Right!” My interpretation of this dictum is: Never reveal your mind to rivals. That is to say, be guarded and deceptive while putting rivals on a wrong track. In India we very well understand these words of Mao. These are part of Chinese characteristics which, I presume, is ingrained in the nature of leadership, Mao or no Mao. Nehru’s India experienced this in 1962 after signing of the historic Panchsheel agreement between prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru and premier Zhou- En-lai, then Mao’s right hand man. Be that as it may. We have to learn to move on and deal with China in realistic terms against the backdrop of changing global equations. Today’s Chinese leaders do understand that in the changing global setting, power no longer grows out of the barrel of the gun but on the strength of economic and technological capabilities. It is estimated that China’s share of the global economy by 2016 will be larger than America’s in purchasing price-parity terms.
Looking at the economic slowdown Beijing may not achieve number one global slot by 2016. It could well be 2020. In any case, China is pursuing a well-calculated strategy to acquire a pre-eminent economic position. Will this also give it a global geo-political pre-eminence? A number of unknown factors could be at play between now and 2020. But we need not be guided by unknown factors in making an objective assessment of China’s global power. We must not overlook China’s ability to be flexible and pragmatic if its leaders feel such a path to be in their long-term interest. Just look at one simple fact: a country that would conveniently sideline hardcore communist ideology and befriend once-sworn enemy America and adopt its capitalist ways and concepts to modernise its economic and technological advantages with a view to carving out a top slot in the comity of nations must be a shrewd country — a very special pragmatic power. I am reminded here of one observation shared with me by a Chinese professor during my first visit to China abut 11- years back. The professor was known to be very close to the communist party. He told me, “Our goal is to build the country as a super power, both economically and technologically. This should explain our extra-special warmth towards the US regime. Once we achieve our goals, then we know how we would tackle and fix up Americans”. Much of the behaviour pattern of China all these years has been exactly in tune with his observations. For more than a decade China has pursued a policy that has relied heavily on economic carrots or has shown its economic-cum-military muscle to force its real and potential rivals to fall in line with its areas of special interest. Beijing has indeed used its diplomatic instruments of direct investment and aid to promote its interest and keep the Asean countries under check. Of late, the going in this area has not been all that easy for China, especially with its neighbours around the South China Sea where the situation continues to be explosive. We have to wait and watch how China handles countries like Vietnam, Cambodia, and Indonesia which now see through China’s deeper games and assert their rights to the annoyance of the Chinese. Perhaps China would shun its confrontationist stand and be more accommodating and responsive to the sensitivities of the neighbours. In any case, by its odd diplomatic postures China has put the US and the neighbouring countries on their guard. Beijing would surely not relish the ganging up of potential rivals under the US umbrella.
China watchers do acknowledge that Beijing has already started behaving like a great power. But if it overstretches itself its problems could mount as the neighbouring countries would not allow China to bully them beyond a point. Bonnie Glaser, a senior fellow with a Centre for Strategic Studies at the Pacific Forum, states that “China does not just target its neighbours. Beijing also used economic coercion against far-off Norway after the Norwegian Nobel Committee decided in 2010 to award its Nobel Peace Prize to mainland dissident Liu Xiaobo. It apparently overlooked the fact that the Nobel Peace Prize Committee is independent of the Oslo government.”
There are certainly strong elements of arrogance in China’s conduct of its diplomacy. It has often behaved irrationally in its relationship with India on several matters, including its denial of visa to senior Indian officials. Actually, Beijing has perfected the art of blowing hot and blowing cold depending on its crude calculation at a given time and in a given situation. We will have to watch and see who emerges on top later this year after the Communist Party’s top decision-making body Politburo concludes its deliberations. Incumbent and retired party chiefs have already started meeting informally to finalize decision on the new leadership line-up and policy ahead of the 18th party congress.
A more liberal Chinese line-up would not only put its suspicious neighbours at ease but also ensure its march towards 2020 easier and congenial to fulfil its dream to acquire a number one position in today’s slippery global corridors of power. A lot will depend on how the US goes about its task of rebuilding its economy while pursuing its futuristic business and strategic goals. Amidst this US-China business rivalry India will have to carve out its own place on the global chessboard. Indian leaders ought to understand and appreciate China’s remarkable progress and find right answers to the country’s socio-economic problems within the country’s democratic framework and without playing dirty politics.
We do not expect our leaders to betray the people. Their sole task should be to revamp the system, improve the quality of governance and meet the challenge of the revolution of rising expectations of the people within a time-bound programme and due determination. Otherwise, China will have its last laugh keeping New Delhi under the leash by successfully dumping Maoism in India and Nepal. China will simply march ahead on a capitalist highway with its revolutionary Mao remaining just a museum piece in Beijing’s glittering skyline. INAV
There is no reason why our vibrant democracy should be seen as a poor second on the Asian political chessboard vis-à-vis China’s Americanised Maoism. INAV