ASSEMBLY POLLS ROAD TO 2019
By Harihar Swarup
What does ongoing elections in Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Union territory of Puducherry portend? The outcome of poll may set the tone of general elections in 2019. Of course, the stakes are high both for the Congress and the BJP; but not so much for the BJP because, except Assam, the party has virtually no stake in four election-bound states.
It is foolhardy to make any poll predication at this stage when only one first phase of election is held in Assam. What appears clear and for that poll forecasts are not required is that Mamata Banerjee is certain to romp home in West Bengal irrespective of the margin of her victory; it may be less than last election. Obviously, Congress-Marxists alliance does not measure up to her popularity.
Bengalis have shed ideas and ideology for pragmatism. The promised Poribortan (change) is translated as rice at Rs. two kg, cycles for college students, shoes for schoolchildren, free education for girls, and other largesse for voters. But Bengalis want jobs. An important reason why Left Front fell was that having regenerated the countryside, it did not meet the revolution of rising expectation by inviting industry.
On her part, Mamata’s fierce campaign against a Special Economic Zone at Nandigram and Tata’s factory at Singur made industrialists even more suspicious. For all her undoubted achievements, charisma, energy and burning desire to do something for Bengal, Mamata lacks the vision, manpower and organizational support to seek a permanent solution to long-standing economic problems.
Almost the same is the situation in Tamil Nadu where Jayalalithaa is sure to win; in the prevailing situation Congress-DMK alliance is no match to her. What is seen as Karunanidhi’s climactic battle with his bête noir, Jayalalithaa, 68, who has enjoyed a popular, if tumultuous, reign in office. The DMK, which was washed out in the last election, because of rampant corruption, is hoping in vain, to make a recovery by allying with smaller parties and attacking Amma where she is perceived to be weak—her government’s stand on prohibition, its management of the Chennai floods, and her aloofness from the body politic, among other things. Karunanidhi’s party men will not allow the 92-year-old leader to hang his boots. He had, after all, led his party to victories in four assembly elections.
The first time Jayalalithaa assumed office, in 1991, it was a spectacular victory for the AIADMK. The AIADMK-Congress alliance won on the back of a sympathy wave after Rajiv Gandhi’s assassination. This time around, Jayalalithaa’s dramatic acquittal in an 18-year-old disproportionate assets case, which she hailed as a “victory of justice”, may work in her favour. With the elections shaping up to a battle royale, her vote share may well dip, but she is sure to get a clear mandate. The BJP has not made a dent in Tamil Nadu.
Most tough electoral battle is slated in Kerala where prediction, at this stage, appears to be difficult. According to electoral pattern in the southern state, Congress-led front and the Left Front alternate each five years.
The 92-year-old V S Achuthanandan has become the face CPI-M in the current election; he is all set to go to battle field again, the sixth time in an eventful political life that began in 1938 at the age of 18 as a trade union activist. He asserts “we will this time with a thumping majority. People of Kerala are badly in need of change. They are fed up with the Oommen Chandy government. There is corruption at all levels”.
Life started as a struggle for Achuthanandan. He lost his mother in early childhood, and his father at the age of 11. When he was 12, he dropped out of school to work in a coir factory. He got into politics by organizing workers. Even now, at this age, the energy is unflagging. Achuthanandan gets at 4 in the morning, does yoga for an hour and then goes for a brisk war for another hour. Breakfast is limited to two idilis and sambhar; lunch is less than a cup of rice with plenty of vegetables. Fish is a luxury when he comes to his home.
Despite Achuthanandan’s popularity, the challenge for Marxists is formidable and all is not well for Left Front. In spite of charges of corruption against the ruling Congress led by Oomen Chandy, the Congress and its allies are set to give a tough fight to the Left Front. The results are difficult to predict. Wait for the D-day – May 19.
Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi, the Congress stalwart of Assam, is a worried man. He is facing the biggest battle of his life. His dilemma is that there are new claimants for Muslim votes but he can’t enter into any pact with pro-Muslim parties for fear of antagonizing Hindu voters, who possibly would veer towards a relatively new contender, the BJP, which has made all out efforts to establish a major foothold in the state. After the poll debacles in Delhi and Bihar, this is one state— among those going to polls in April-May—where the ruling party at the centre has some realistic chances of making a dramatic progress.
For Gogoi, who has turned 80, this month, the challenges are daunting. While it is the BJP that is making a bid to win over Hindu votes, it is Badruddin Ajmal’s All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) that he fears would eat into Congress’ traditional vote bank that comprises Bangladeshi immigrants among other Muslims. (IPA Service)