The return of the BJP and Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan to power in Madhya Pradesh after a gap of 15 months spells another season of unpredictable times in the state. While the 2018 assembly polls had resulted in a hung assembly, it was a crafty Congress leader Kamal Nath who managed to form a minority government with the BSP and the SP falling to his charms along with some Independents too. That he has completed 15 months in office was a feat in itself, given this special context.
When Kamal Nath started, a guess was that the BJP would pull the government down sooner than later through horse-trading or other means. Having run the government in the state for 15 years at a stretch, both Chouhan and the BJP apparently opted to lie low for a while and respect the people’s decision to divest them of power. However, from the very start, the problem for Kamal Nath was from within his party. Senior leader Jyotiraditya Scindia who aspired to become CM was not willing to reconcile to the new situation. Yet, no one might have expected of him to cross over to the BJP, though some elders in the family have been with the saffron party for many years. The resignation of 22 Congress MLAs from the assembly and their eventual entry to the BJP, as Scindia himself did, turned out to be the last nail on the Kamal Nath government’s coffin.
Problem now is, however, more serious for Chouhan and the BJP. Since bye-elections to these 22 seats will take place soon, nothing guarantees a walkover for the BJP. The resourceful Kamal Nath, though he has taken a hit, can be trusted to concentrate his full attention on turning the tables on the BJP. If the BJP fails to get sufficient numbers of seats from these by-polls – which means grabbing as much from the Congress kitty – Chouhan and his government will fall like a pack of cards. It will be a matter of months before the by-poll results are out.
The fall of the Congress government in MP should be fresh disappointment for the rank and file of the party in other states too. The BJP is bound to turn its attention now to states like Rajasthan, where too the Congress is not comfortably placed in power, as also Maharashtra. There could be more implosions within the Congress or within the NCP and the Shiv Sena. The age of politicians or MLAs hanging on to one or the other ideology is a thing of the past.