The Karzai government and the Taliban were eagerly waiting for the news. President Barack Obama has finally outlined his policy for the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan. US elections will be held in 2012. Support for Obama’s economic policy and US engagement in Afghanistan had been dwindling. Obama’s decision was only to be expected. But his own generals are not happy that domestic compulsions should lead to a military decision affecting Afghanistan. The rapid withdrawal of US troops-some 30,000 out of 1,00,000 by 2012 may strengthen the Taliban. Evidently the Afghan armed forces under Karzai are not in a position to take them on. That will threaten the country’s security. The withdrawal of US troops is proposed to be completed by 2014. Obama may or may not be in office at that time. However, if the US embarks on this policy and Obama is out, his successor will have to stick to it. There will of course be 60,000 US troops left in Afghanistan after 2012. Washington is unlikely to hand over all its bases. What seems more possible is that the US presence will continue to enable drone attacks and strikes by special forces.
New Delhi should formulate its Afghan policy with caution. It should persuade the US to pull out its troops only gradually. The 2014 deadline is too rigid. Withdrawal of US troops will create a security vacuum. The local defence services will have to be beefed up to fill the void. That will take time. The US should address the interests of all parties involved. A quick reduction in the American troop presence in Afghanistan should not lead to a zero sum game.
