BANGKOK: A Thai television presenter asked Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva this week if this would be the last time he would be interviewing him as prime minister.
Abhisit replied: ”Why? Are you quitting journalism?”
It was a brave show of confidence ahead of Sunday’s election by the urbane, Oxford-educated economist who also goes under the birth name of ‘Mark’.
Last month, Abhisit pulled on a crash helmet, sat astride a vintage side-car motorbike and posed for photographers as his election campaign convoy moved through central Bangkok.
In a stroke of bad luck, the engine spluttered and died halfway down an alley. Abhisit tried several times to restart it, shook his head, dismounted and trudged on by foot.
That publicity stunt was somehow more symbolic of his Democrat Party’s struggle to make headway against a resurgent opposition led by the sister of former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, a billionaire telecommunications tycoon ousted in a 2006 coup who now calls the shots from exile in Dubai.
Opinion polls, while far from reliable, increasingly point to a win for Thaksin’s Puea Thai party even though it would probably have to forge a coalition to rule.
The Democrats, on the other hand, may win too few parliamentary seats to be given the first shot at putting together a coalition government — and it is far from certain they can win enough seats to convince members of their current alliance to stay on board and steer clear of Puea Thai.
Yingluck’s dramatic late entry into the election race caught Abhisit’s party off guard and made its campaign look all the more lacklustre.
”Their campaign has been quiet, that’s their style, not like the big marketing focus Thaksin has always had,” said Chris Baker, author of ”Thaksin: The Business of Politics in Thailand” and several other books on Thai politics, said in June. (PTI)
”The Democrats were shaken enormously by Yingluck’s candidacy,” he added. ”Abhisit will focus on trying to discredit Puea Thai and appeal to those not fond of Thaksin and those wanting stability.”
Abhisit has done just that, warning in an interview with Reuters that the country, which has been racked by sporadic unrest for the past five years, could lurch into a new round of instability if his rivals win power.
Two months of anti-government protests in Bangkok by red-shirted Thaksin supporters last year were broken up by the army, a bloody denouement that killed 91 people, wounded nearly 2,000 and saw more than 30 buildings set on fire.
Against the odds, Abhisit had the steadfast backing of the military and royalist elite and held on after the Bangkok unrest. However, his fortunes are shifting, raising questions over whether he can continue to lead Thailand even if the Democrats manage to form a coalition.
”Any potential coalition partners would make it a condition that he has to be replaced,” said Jacob Ramsay, senior Southeast Asia analyst at consultants Control Risks. ”It’s not about his competence, it’s the taint of what happened last year.”
After a month of low-key campaigning, Abhisit ramped up the rhetoric at a rally last week, urging the public to back his Democrats and ”detoxify” Thailand by thwarting Thaksin’s bid to wrest back power from exile.
Speaking to a crowd of 12,000 in central Bangkok, Abhisit urged Thaksin to ”stop hurting Thailand” and said Puea Thai was a vehicle to whitewash the tycoon of his graft conviction.
Somjai Phagaphasvivat, a political scientist at Bangkok’s Thammasat University, said Abhisit’s impassioned speech may win over some swing voters and reduce the deficit between the Democrats and Puea Thai.
”The rally may convince five percent of eligible voters who remain undecided to go for the Democrats. That is a meaningful improvement,” Somjai said.
”I believe Puea Thai’s momentum is already peaking and can only fade in the last lap when the Democrats will try to exploit public perception of Yingluck’s political inexperience.” REUTERS PA RAI1156