Major social churning on in Uttar Pradesh
By Harihar Swarup
As the polling dates come nearer in Uttar Pradesh (the first of seven-phase election is slated for Wednesday), it is becoming increasingly clear that the real fight is between Mayawati and Mulayam Singh Yadav. The Congress and the BJP have been vying with each other for the third slot. Pollsters say neither Mayawati’s BSP nor Mulayam Singh’s Samajwadi Party are likely to get a clear majority. Biggest handicap of BSP is Mayawati’s corrupt image but her Dalit vote bank appears to be intact. Mulayam’s disadvantage is that his Muslim voters have partly moved away from him.
According to preliminary poll predictions the Congress may marginally improve its position, getting between 40 to 50 seats. In the outgoing assembly the party had only 22 seats. The prospects of Congress have improved in western UP because of alliance with Ajit Singh. It is still early to hazard a guess about post-poll scenario but the possibility of a Mulayam-Ajit-Congress coalition appears a possibility.
In the 2007 Assembly poll, Mayawati sprang a big surprise by securing a majority on her own on the strength of a historic rainbow coalition that arched over the entire caste spectrum and rallied anti-Yadav forces behind her to oust Mulayam Singh’s “goonda raj”. Two years later in 2009 Lok Sabha elections, the Congress astonished everybody by bagging 21 seats, thus coming second in a split verdict after Mayawati’s dalit-Brahmin axis splintered.
Caste politics and the minority card will decide which party wins election in Uttar Pradesh. UP 2012 is not just another assembly elections in the most populous and politically sensitive state of the union. It is a landmark poll whose outcome will have impact on the UPA-II government at the centre and set the stage for next general election.
Equally important is the long-term implications for the ongoing process of social change in the Hindi heartland. Two decades of Mandal and Dalit politics have brought into the political mainstream castes and groups historically disenfranchised by the Brahmanical order. But the battle for social and economic empowerment has still to be won.
The coming polls are another milestone in this battle and the results will determine the pace of social transformation that UP needs for sustained and equitable development.
The UP elections are significant for the marked shift that has manifested itself in the election strategies of the two national parties-the Congress and the BJP. Both have turned their backs on their traditional upper caste voter bases to challenge the SP and BSP for the votes of smaller castes that makeup the lower social order.
There is dominance of nominees from these groups in the candidates’ lists of both the Congress and the BJP, underlining the importance of Mandal in the prevailing conditions in UP. If the Congress is promoting Kurmi leader, Beni Prasad Verma, at the cost of Brahmin leadership, the BJP is projecting tainted former BSP Minister Babu Singh Kushwaha, a keori, unceremoniously sacked by Mayawati. Once he used to be her right hand.
The national parties never before sought support of these castes in this manner. Social significance of this shift should not be underestimated. The upper castes are no longer determining the dynamics of the elections. They have been overtaken by backward and most backward classes. Interestingly, Muslims too are now seen as part of these social groupings, as evident from the quota war that has broken between the Congress and SP. Both parties are trying to outdo each other in promising reservations for OBC Muslims.
This shift is attributed to the political awakening among the lower caste after two decades of Mandal and Dalit politics. Five years of BSP rule in particular have generated a new confidence among Dalits and MBCs. Today no tea shop owner in UP can refuse to serve tea to a Dalit or an MBC or insist on using a separate cup for them. The smaller castes are conscious of their rights and no upper caste dares question this any more.
“This is what Mayawati gave us”, claim her supporters. If the claim of Mayawati’s supporters is true, it means her Dalit votes are solidly with her and there is no crack in her vote bank.
It must be said to Rahul Gandhi’s credit that he realized the importance of over tuning his party’s dependence on upper castes if the Congress has to become relevant again in UP. Caste-based politics obviously has its pitfalls. It can be treacherous going for those unfamiliar with the historical contradiction between various castes. Both the Congress and the BJP have waded into unfamiliar territory this time. Whether or not they gain, they have at least realised the social churning that is taking place in the state. They are trying to adept their politics to it. This in itself is likely to hasten the pace of social transformation in this backward state. (IPA Service)