By Harihar Swarup
The real surprise in election to five state assemblies is the unexpected defeat of the Congress by Akali Dal in Punjab, creating history. No party in the last 40 years has retained power in the state successively for two terms. Akalis have, thus, stalled the trend of anti-incumbency. No one predicted that Prakash Singh Badal would win. The least the pollster forecast was that it may be neck and neck fight between the two parties. Why then Akalis won despite mounting charges of corruption?
One explanation possibly could be that they had done remarkable developmental work which indeed they have. A developed village in Punjab now looks like any village of a European country. Also the infighting in the Congress and prior announcement by Rahul Gandhi that Capt Amarinder Singh would be the chief ministerial candidate helped the Akalis. As soon as Captain’s candidature was announced, other aspirants began working against him. As an observer put it “Congress defeated Congress”.
Nobody in Uttar Pradesh predicted that Mayawati would be routed. The pollsters almost unanimously declared that there would be a hung house with Mulayam Singh’s Samajwadi Party emerging as the single largest party, and BSP running a close second. Mulayam Singh and his young son, Akhilesh, sprang a surprise by virtually a landslide victory. They not only restored their Muslim vote bank but also made a dent in Mayawati’s dalit electorate, which, she had claimed was solidly behind her.
In a spectacular show of solidarity with Mulayam Singh, Muslims voted for 45 candidates of their community, the BSP got 24 and the Congress merely 4. There was a clear wedge in Mayawati’s dalit vote bank with SP getting elected as many as 54 dalit candidates. The man of the match or the architect of SP’s victory was thirty-eight-year-old, Akhilesh and Rahul Gandhi came second. Akhilesh is now all set to become youngest Chief Minister of the most populous state of the country. Both the young men worked very hard. Advantage Akhilesh was that he has a solid organization behind him and Rahul a ramshackle party. It was a barefooted Rahul Gandhi versus a Akhilesh on a four-horse drawn chariot.
Akhilesh changed the obsolete and outmoded thinking of the SP whose main planks in the past were “angreji hatao” (remove English) and against computerization. The 2012 manifesto of the SP promised laptops and tablets for students who completed their school-level education. Also he promised that English teaching would be encouraged. Also Akhilesh was able to eradicate from the mind of the electorate that victory of SP would not mean return of the Goonda Raj. As a proof, he ensured that goons and musclemen like D P Yadav were kept away. Throughout his campaign he talked about maintenance of law and order as his party’s agenda.
Meanwhile hype created by Rahul’s marathon campaign convinced Congress men that their party would cross 100 and they would be kingmaker. They had no doubt till a day before election results were declared, that there would be a hung house. Without waiting for results, they made the mistake of making sorts of stupid declarations. The worst mistake was made when some leaders prematurely declared that President’s rule will be imposed if no party is able to form the government. By implication it meant that the centre would indirectly rule UP. So sure was the Congress about its prognosis that it declared that the party would not extend support to Mulayam Singh to form the government. The Congress leaders should have waited before making immature declarations. This created even a greater surge for the SP in last two phases of elections with a large concentration of Muslim population.
Rahul and Digvijay Singh had, no doubt, worked very hard in UP election. Rahul addressed over 200 meetings. Akhilesh, on his part, addressed as many as 800 rallies and travelled 10,000 kms. An internal assessment initially made at the AICC was that the party should get about 80 seats. However, those in touch with grass-root level thought if the party could get 40, it would be an achievement. The Congress might have reached 40 figure if it had not made a series of mistakes. Among them the promise to provide nine percent reservation to Muslims, alienated Hindus. Muslims too were not impressed by the promise.
Notwithstanding poor showing of the Congress, hard work done by Rahul and Digvijay had reawaked the party in Uttar Pradesh. This was the reason that Sonia Gandhi rejected Digvijay’s offer of resignation. Neither Rahul nor Digvijay have a magic wand to rebuild a virtually dormant organization for over two decades overnight.
As a Congress leader chose to put it—“they have sown the seeds; the plant will grow soon”. The need is to nurture the plant with dedication and not to allow it to dry. If the plant grows up and becomes strong, the yield of fruits can be reaped in 2014 when the country goes for general election.”
Poll results in Uttarakhand are on expected lines. The Congress has a lead by one member and it is poised to form the government with the support of independents. In Manipur the Congress victory was a foregone conclusion. In Goa the BJP was better placed and anti-incumbency was evident against the Congress. So it lost the state. (IPA Service)