By Sanchet Barua
The three day visit of prime minister Manmohan Singh to Myanmar is a significant move to put the bilateral relation between the two countries on even keel. Myanmar is eager to restore democracy and build up friendly relations with India. This will profoundly affect geopolitics in Asia — and all for the better. Northeast India will be a beneficiary as proposed rail and road will pass through this region, if Myanmar accepts Indian proposals. Geographically Myanmar dominates the Bay of Bengal. It is where the spheres of influence of China and India overlap. Myanmar is also abundant in oil, natural gas, coal, zinc, copper, precious stones, timber and hydropower, with some uranium deposits as well. The prize of the Indo-Pacific region, Myanmar has been locked up by dictatorship for decades, even as the Chinese have been slowly stripping it of natural resources. Think of Myanmar as another Afghanistan in terms of its potential to change a region: a key, geostrategic puzzle piece ravaged by war and ineffective government that, if only normalized, would unroll trade routes in all directions.
Ever since China’s Yuan (ethnic Mongol) dynasty invaded Myanmar in the 13th century, Myanmar has been under the shadow of a Greater China, with no insurmountable geographic barriers or architectural obstacles like the Great Wall to separate the two lands — though the Hengduan Shan range borders the two countries. At the same time, Myanmar has historically been the home of an Indian business community — a middleman minority in sociological terms — that facilitated the British hold on Myanmar as part of a Greater British India.
But if Myanmar continues on its path of reform by opening links to the neighbouring countries, rather than remaining a natural resource tract to be exploited by China, Myanmar will develop into an energy and natural resource hub in its own right, uniting the Indian sub-continent, China and Southeast Asia all into one fluid, organic continuum. And although Chinese influence in Myanmar would diminish in relative terms, China would still benefit immensely. Indeed, Kunming, in China’s southern Yunnan province, would become the economic capital of Southeast Asia, where river and rail routes from Myanmar, Laos and Vietnam would converge.
Much of this infrastructure activity is already under way. At Ramree Island off Myanmar’s Northwestern Arakan coast, the Chinese are constructing pipelines to take oil and natural gas from Africa, the Persian Gulf and the Bay of Bengal across the heart of Myanmar to Kunming. The purpose will be to alleviate China’s dependence on the Strait of Malacca, through which four-fifths of its crude oil imports pass at present. There will also be a high-speed rail line roughly along this route by 2015.
But Myanmarese are unpredictable people, and the British who were Burma’s “saviours” in World War II had the experience of being overnight eased out once their job was accomplished. The sudden decision by Nay Pyi Taw last year to suspend work on the country’s biggest hydroelectric project financed by China Power Investment Corporation shows Beijing’s experience is no different, either. This despite China being Myanmar’s biggest investor, with Chinese companies having pledged more than $14 billion investment in Myanmar’s 2010-2011 fiscal year, taking the total investment pledges to $20 billion.
Suffice to say, India is dealing with a highly nationalistic country, which has a highly focused mind with a steely resolve. Our pundits naively see Myanmar as a languid turf where Indian and Chinese influences intersect in a classic great game. Beijing comprehends better. A Chinese commentary on prime minister Manmohan Singh’s visit to Myanmar summed up: “China is not interested in dictating another country’s foreign relations. It is abnormal, and cannot be sustained. Besides, history has shown us that its cons often outweigh its pros.”
The dexterity with which Aung San Suu Kyi, leader of the opposition in Myanmar, showed in recent weeks that she is neither a pushover nor a recalcitrant opponent of the regime shows how there is going to be a “Myanmarese way” out of military authoritarianism. By the way, this is also what gives hope that a return to outright dictatorship is unlikely in Myanmar and we are witnessing the dawn of a new variant of democracy in the Asean family, which is home to diverse regimes.
Thus, the most important part of Dr. Singh’s visit was to gently let the controversial chapter of the two-decades-old Indian apathy toward Myanmar’s democratic aspirations drift away and craft a contemporaneous approach.
However, both China and India have also been vindicated in ignoring the western protestations not to deal with the regime in Myanmar until western style liberal democracy arrived. Both understood the quintessence of Myanmarese nationalism and are fine-tuning their policies, convinced that Myanmar will forever have a continued need for them in terms of geography, shared history and culture, and it simply can’t be otherwise for a country that is clear-headed about where its best interests would lie vis-à-vis two emerging powers.
Myanmar is unlikely to make any major policy shift toward China or India following its reengagement with the west. Its economic reforms could benefit China and India as neighbouring countries, although the competition from western companies would be fierce. The biggest impact will be felt in China’s Yunnan and India’s Northeast. This is where China scores over India. Beijing has a blueprint of development for its southern regions and can co-relate it with Myanmar’s opening up but India is yet to figure out how to dovetail the development of its Northeast with the epochal changes in Myanmar. Some of the agreements signed during the prime minister’s three day visit keep this objective in view in sectors such as infrastructure, trade or tourism.
The main thing is that there should be no irreconcilable conflict of interests. The joint statement issued after Singh’s visit underscored that the two sides agreed on fighting “the scourge of terrorism and insurgent activity in all its forms and manifestations.” On his return journey, the prime minister told reporters, “I have an assurance that they (Myanmar authorities) will make every effort” to thwart rebel insurgents operating against India. He added meaningfully, “We do recognise (the) problems are similar.”
Equally, there is going to be a scramble for Myanmar’s resources. The lifting of western sanctions paves the way for western companies to take an early lead in making investments, be it in Myanmar’s natural gas or minerals. The Chinese companies are actively exploring new business opportunities. Trust Myanmar to leverage its friendly relations with the west, China and India. Myanmar will surely expect massive economic benefits from “opening up” to the west and will be looking for a strong economic-political relationship with it. Can India match these competitors? What is the “additionality” India can bring to the table? INAV