By Harihar Swarup
Coming Gujarat elections are not an ordinary poll, for they will have a big impact on the national politics post general elections 2014. If Congress wins, or, even improves its tally in the state assembly, the party’s chances will brighten. Modi made his first mistake by making the poll campaign attacks personalized, or, more precisely, Sonia-centric. Poll outcome notwithstanding, Sonia Gandhi’s stature has gone further up by her poised defence, not attacking on a personal level or even mentioning Narendra Modi, but rather making electioneering completely issue-based.
Soon Modi got a rebuff when Chief Information Commissioner Satyananda Mishra disclosed that the Congress Chief had not sought any official reimbursement of her medical bills, meaning that till now government has incurred no expenditure on her travel and treatment abroad. Modi has not only been proved to be a blatant liar, but his attempt to take political mileage of somebody’s illness smacked of low taste.
One may recall that L K Advani had launched a similar bitter attack on Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in the run up to the 2009 elections. But hitting out at PM viciously and repeatedly, what did Advani get in return? In fact, he made Dr. Singh a middle class hero. Advani’s attack on PM, actually, boomeranged very badly on the BJP as the middle class voted overwhelmingly for the Congress. It is too early to talk of 2014 elections, but Modi’s vitriolic attack on Sonia Gandhi appears to be a virtual repetition of the failed strategy of 2009.
Modi claims that he may get 150 seats, beating the Congress leader, Madhavsinh Solanki’s record of leading the Congress to victory with 148 seats in the 1985 Assembly elections. That was also last time the Congress had won in Gujarat.
Redrawing assembly constituencies has changed the demographic profile of newly formed 65 of 182 seats in the state. Over two dozen sitting MLAs have been thus affected. Meanwhile, the Congress has avoided making 2002 riots central to its campaign. Every time the party has raised the issue in previous election, Modi has managed to polarize the electorate on communal lines and won decisive victories.
Congress recognizes that getting past Modi might not be an easy task but thinks it can wrest a huge symbolic victory in Gujarat by managing to get an improved tally. BJP sees Gujarat as a sure shot, although not everyone in the party may be comfortable with boosting the prospects of Modi for the Prime Ministerial chair. Modi has made no secret of his Prime Ministerial ambitions, repeatedly engaging with Dr. Singh or Sonia Gandhi to project himself beyond the confines of Gujarat.
Apart from Modi’s detractors, the RSS too does not support his prime ministerial ambition. As a matter of fact, barring a handful of Modi supporters and few of his administers, no political party will support his bid as the prime ministerial candidate. The moment the BJP’s central leadership tries to project him, the BJP will be isolated politically. The moment he is projected, the allies will quit one by one, leaving the BJP high and dry.
Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is so allergic to Modi that he does not want even to listen to his name. He did not allow Modi to enter Bihar to campaign for the BJP in the assembly elections. If the BJP’s leadership touches Modi even with barge’s poll, NItish will be out. Apart from the BJP, the Bihar Chief Minister has been toying with the idea of quitting the NDA for quite some. His overtures to the Congress are now well known. He has gone on record saying he would join anyone who gives special status to the state of Bihar. Lately, he has moved closer to the Congress, having admired Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Sonia Gandhi in public.
Nitish is rightly apprehensive that the mere suspicion that he may support Modi will have a terrifying effect on the Muslim voters; they will desert him en bloc in no time. Evidently, the Chief Minister cannot take that risk and really why should he?
None of the political parties, even the staunchest supporters of the BJP, will like to see Modi as the Prime Minister. For the Left parties, like Mamata Banerjee and Mulayam Singh Yadav, the BJP and Modi are anathema. Having bitter experience when she formed the government with the BJP on the condition that she would rule the state for two-and-half years and the BJP for the same period, Mayawati too does not trust the saffron party anymore. With her battle with her arch foe Mulayam Singh Yadav getting intense, she would not like to lose the support of the Muslim electorate.
Anti-incumbency factor and a deluge of scams weigh heavily on the UPA, putting it on a weak wicket. Even if both the UPA and the NDA fail to muster majority, there’s a chance of the notional Third Front becoming a reality. The general elections are not that far away and the Gujarat elections would form a big imprint in the national psyche. (IPA Service)