Friday, November 15, 2024
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Second innings bodes well for Indo-US ties

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Obama’s re-election secures his place in history

By Kalyani Shankar

 

It was an impressive win for the US President Barack Obama who will begin his second innings at the White House in January 2013. Americans have preferred continuity than change. He has created history again by defying the undertow of a slow economic recovery and high unemployment to beat his Republican opponent Mitt Romney. Obama became the second Democrat to win a second four-year White House term since World War II.

Despite the entire nail biting campaign predictions of a very close fight, ultimately Obama made it. While almost all the countries in the world have welcomed Obama’s re election, how does India look at it? It is true that neither Obama nor Romney had India on their radar during the presidential debates, while China was mentioned at least 34 times. Indian-Americans, and a lot of Indians, persist with the myth that Democrats are good for India. This perception goes back to the Nehru-Kennedy days when Kennedy came to the rescue of India during the Chinese aggression.

India was among the first to send congratulatory greetings to the US President Obama. President Pranab Mukherjee and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh separately sent messages of congratulations expressing hope that the ties would be improved further. Singh and Obama have established a good rapport and know each other well by now. Had Mitt Romney become the President, Singh would have had to begin it all over again.

The South Block had been keeping a close eye on the US elections and Indian diplomats claim that it did not matter to India whoever occupies the White House. Some might say that Obama may be better for India, as the saying goes “known devil is better than unknown devil”, for his Republican opponent Romney was not tried and tested as far as India is concerned. After creating ripples against outsourcing jobs to India, Obama showed considerable interest in India. In 2008, when Obama took over, there were apprehensions about his administration’s policy towards India. His presidency started off on the negative as far as India was concerned when he initiated a soft line towards China, but soon he abandoned it. He had sent his Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to India sending a signal that in his scheme of things India was a priority. Soon Obama built on the Bush era bonhomie with New Delhi and continued with the improvement in bilateral ties. He hosted Dr. Manmohan Singh as the first state guest after he took over. The Obama administration began to look at India as a regional power to balance China. He visited India in his first term, unlike President Clinton, who made it here in his second term. The Indo-US relations had also been on the upswing with the high level visits from Obama administration officials to Delhi and vice versa. The expectations are that these may continue and the relationship may deepen and broaden, particularly on the economic and security fronts.

On the trade side, India-US total merchandise trade was $57.80 billion in 2011 – making the US India’s third largest trading partner. It was during his first term that the India-US bilateral trade crossed the USD 100 billion mark. Obama has appointed a record number of Indian-Americans to top positions in his administration, including Raj Shah as USAID Administrator.

Pakistan’s military, which decides the country’s national security policy, has been generally known to favour the Republican rule. Opinion polls in Pakistan favoured Romney for President. They consider the Democrats to be cold towards Pakistan. During Obama’s first term, the Pak-US ties hit the lowest. Pakistan establishment was angry about the drone attacks and the killing of Al Qaeda chief Osama Bin Laden in the covert way the operation was conducted; and also the NATO attacks on Pakistani border. Islamabad also would view that Obama’s second term means Washington would put pressure on Islamabad to facilitate its goals in Afghanistan. Obama’s victory also means that its endgame in Afghanistan would pick up steam. Pakistan has been feeling its own potential role as an important player in Afghanistan. India also knows the mind of Obama with regard to Pakistan, while Romney might have taken a softer attitude. It is expected that Obama may take a tough line on terrorism emanating from Pakistan against India. However, President Obama will have to manage relations with Islamabad as best he can.

There are some who predict that the US would come closer to India to check the rise of China. When Hillary Clinton was in India last year she urged India to play a bigger role in the region.

Investors expect further quantitative easing in the U.S. with President Barack Obama’s re-election. Leaders of India Inc have welcomed the re-election of Obama as continuity will be good for bilateral relations, but some of them expressed concerns over the outsourcing issue. The US and Europe account for over 80 per cent of revenues of the Indian IT industry. Outsourcing is one worry for the IT industry which may not be hit too much, as it is being seen that Obama’s stance on the out sourcing was more of a rhetoric than real as he did not stoop that in his first term.

For all purposes, Obama’s second term would be more welcome in India as it signals the deepening and broadening of the Indo-US ties which is already on track. This would be more so in the light of their strategic and economic sides. (IPA Service)

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