By Lalit Sethi
Cross currents are now in free flow in the Indian democracy. No new alliances appear feasible, but the federal character of the nation is acknowledged, even if regional ambitions are projected by diverse political forces. Hopes of cooperation are entertained, if not endorsed by the regional leaders.
When the DMK withdrew its Ministers from the UPA government, Mr. Nitish Kumar promptly said that there was no prospect of the Union Government being destabilized. Even Ms. Mamta Bannerjee, who had walked out of the coalition a year ago, said the Government at the Centre would run its full term, indicating a vote for the Finance Bill when the Budget Session resumes after a month and is due to be adopted after debates and reports from the Standing Committees for the Ministries. Leftist parties would not be interested in upsetting the applecart. The 19 odd DMK members of the Lok Sabha may continue to support the government from outside, but reliance on them is overtaken by three parties in the eastern region plus the leftists, all of whom have more than 70 seats in the Lower House.
The belief that the two major national parties do not have a clear majority in Parliament at present and are unlikely to get one in the General Election next year has encouraged regional or rather parties ruling just one State to engage in kite flying over the prospect of a Third Front at the national level. Since the idea is obviously unattainable even in one region of the country, it remains a trial balloon. But those leaders who nurse the idea believe that the Front could take shape after the elections if the results throw up a hung Parliament with one of the two alliances ~ unable to secure a clear lead. But the satraps in the States are from agreed on who should lead them. Most of them would rather stake their own claims to the office of Prime Minister. It is clearly a game of one-upmanship.
Even the BJP is not interested in upsetting the applecart and its detractors have been asking why do they not move a censure motion. There is no response from the main Opposition party, knowing that the National Democratic Alliance is unlikely to agree to it.
In nearly all scenarios, the question arises whether they will accept support of the leftist parties. That prospect is immediately disowned by some of the parties, especially by Trinamool Congress and Biju Janata Dal led by Mr. Naveen Patnaik. The regional leaders all realize that in the best of times, they may find it difficult to win more than 100 or 120 seats of the Lok Sabha in next year’s elections. Even if they wish to stake a claim to forming the government, they would have to prove to the President that they enjoy the support of a majority of members of the House ~ that is at least 273 MPs. They would have to secure the support of the Congress or the BJP.
The regional leaders would like to woo Mr. Sharad Pawar of the National Congress Party, who leads 10 or fewer MPs in the Lok Sabha, but his own ambitions are so considerable that he would never concede the place of being first among the equals to any formation like the Third Front.
At the same time, Mr. Arun Jaitley has started trying to convince Mr. Nitish Kumar to accept Mr. Narendra Modi as the future leader of the National Democratic Alliance even as the Janata Dal United is thinking of going it alone in parliamentary elections in Bihar. But the BJP tries to remind him that the saffron party has strong cadres in Bihar and he should not ditch it. But Mr. Nitish Kumar has built bridges with the Congress directly and through the good offices of Mr. N.K.Singh, a former Revenue Secretary at the Centre and now a member of the Rajya Sabha, who is quite a crafty player in the Delhi circuit.
After losing the urban municipal elections in Karnataka, the BJP is still hoping to make it good in the Assembly elections in the State, but the Congress hopes that it will be able to overtake the saffron party and form the government with some outside, if not on its own in May this year, just a few weeks from now. That would have an impact on its prospects in next year’s elections. The Congress would hope to retain its hold on Rajasthan, but the BJP would be able to deploy Mr. Narendra Modi there as well as in Chhattisgarh and parts of Madhya Pradesh this year in the expectation of retaining the two States. But a question mark remains in the three States. [IFS]