India is projected to be the world’s most populous country beating China by 2035. According to a UN Report however, the pace will be quicker and India will be the most populous by 2028. It is shattering news with India lagging behind in agriculture, industry and technology. China’s generation of wealth is reported to be crippled by labour shortage. The question is whether or not India’s huge labour force will be an advantage. The growth story is disheartening. India has half a billion workers. But only five million are employed in manufacturing units having more than ten people on the staff. More than half the workers are in manufacturing facilities sans electricity. Our government is hardly prioritizing creation of industrial jobs unlike in China.
Great energies have been so far expended on passing the food security bill in parliament. The Rural Employment Generation Programme also remains just a programme. Growth is very much on people’s minds. MNERGA hardly conduces to gainful employment in higher value-added sectors like agriculture. The government is aware that the share of manufacturing in GDP should be hiked from 15 % to 25 % in the next decade. That can create more than one hundred million jobs. But it will call for growth in manufacturing at over 14 % a year for the next decade. The rate in the last 10 years was a measly 3%. A growing army of unemployed in India will heighten social and political tensions beyond measure. Here are the solutions. Labour-intensive industries should be allowed to expand. Focus should be on power, SEZs and education reform. Many years ago, V.V. Giri appealed for jobs for the teeming millions. That should continue to be the prime target.