A draft report prepared by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been leaked. It says that the predicted rate of global warming has so far been overstated. There has actually been a pause in global warming and scientists have not given due weightage to the planet’s natural weather cycles-ice ages broken by warmer spells. The last such break was the Medieval Warm Period. The report is 95% certain that increases in global temperature are brought about by human activities. It confirms the old notion. The issues of global warming remain controversial-scientist James Jeans spoke of the dying sun leading to global freezing. It is 95% futile to expect certainty in this regard. Controversy can be widespread. For instance, the North has complained that methane produced in the guts of Indian cattle is more harmful than carbon discharge by automobiles. The South on the other hand has claimed that gobar (cow dung) is the cleanest fuel of the future. Global warming is actually a concept shrouded by a probability cloud. It cannot be denied that the world needs growth in industry, energy and food production. If such growth adversely affects global climate, that has to be contained which will lead to the rise of new, specialized industries, disciplines and jobs.
The IPCC report is considered infallible in most quarters as it is based on a study of relevant literature of the last six years. However, one of the authors has cast doubt on its being gospel truth. 195 countries backing the IPCC have put in as many as 1800 questions about its findings. All this should have a bearing on government decisions regarding green taxes and so on. Climate science reports can at best be rough guides. What is of prime importance is Prime Minister Indira Gandhi’s famous statement that poverty is the worst polluter.