By P. Sreekumaran
The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is bent upon making a determined effort to emerge as the third option in Kerala. The moot point is: will it succeed in accomplishing what the BJP has failed to achieve so far? The Arvind Kejriwal-led AAP has a lot going for it. First and foremost is its fresh appeal, especially to the middle class in the state, which boasts of an extremely politically conscious voters in the country. Second has been its ability to attract a big slice of the youth, which has pinned great hopes on it.
The party is going about the task of implementing its game-plan in a well-coordinated manner. Its short-term strategy is to make an electoral debut in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. Indications are that the AAP may contest 6 to 7 seats from Kerala. Among its candidates are writer-activist Sara Joseph, leader of the anti-endosulphan campaign group, Ambalathara Kunjikrishnan, former IPS officer, Ajit Roy and retired district judge N. Sadanandan. While Sara is set to contest from Thrissur, Kunjikrishnan and Sadanandan may try their luck from Kasargode and Mavelikkara constituencies. The other constituencies from which the AAP may contest are: Thiruvananthapuram, Kottayam and Chalakkudy.
As for the long-term strategy of emerging as the third alternative in the State, the AAP leadership is trying to rope in CPI(M) stalwart and leader of the Opposition, V. S. Achuthanandan. Although VS has rejected an invitation from Kejriwal to join the AAP, the party has not lost hope. Incidentally, senior AAP leader Prashant Bhushan is looking after Achuthanandan’s cases in the Supreme Court. A few months back, Bhushan had met VS with a request that he guide the fledgling party not only in the state but also at the national level.
The AAP is sure that things will soon come to a head in the CPI(M) with the official leadership of the party in the state hell bent upon ousting VS from the position of leader of the opposition. It is likely to press the Polit Buro and the Central Committee for action against Achuthanandan, who continues to ‘violate’ party discipline despite repeated warnings and censures. The action may not come immediately in view of the impending Lok Sabha elections. But AAP sources feel the CPI(M) will certainly act against VS after the Lok Sabha elections.
But the AAP’s hopes may not materialize. For, VS is in no mood to leave the party on his own. The CPI(M) veteran, who is the only living founder leader of the party, seems determined to fight the ‘rightist deviations and ideological dilutions’ of the present state leadership from within. Sources close to VS think there is a sizable and silent section within the CPI(M) which backs VS but is waiting for the right time to come out in the open. It may happen if the final verdict in both the Lavalin and the TP Chandrashekharan murder cases goes against the State CPI(M) leadership.
The AAP is also waiting for the unfolding of such a scenario. At that point of time, the AAP will make a concerted effort to have VS, the most popular leader on both sides of the political divide in the state, join the party. If it succeeds, the AAP will get a big boost in the state. Hence the AAP’s refusal to take the VS’s No as the final word on the issue.
The AAP has already opened branch committees in all the 14 districts with its headquarters in Kochi. Its membership enrolment drive is receiving enthusiastic response. Eminent personalities from all walks of life are also making a beeline for the party membership. In fact, the rush to join the AAP is causing some concern to both the ruling UDF and the opposition LDF though both the fronts scoff at its attempts to emerge as the third option. Opinion polls predict the AAP is likely to poll 5 per cent votes, which will be quite an impressive show.
Reports have it that the CPI(M) even invited the AAP to be part of the third front at the national level. But the AAP is disinclined to be part of any front. In Kerala, the AAP would rather function as the fulcrum around which all forces inimical to both the UDF and LDF may revolve.
For instance, the AAP has politely rebuffed attempts by the Revolutionary Marxist Party (RMP) formed by TP Chandrashekharan who was brutally murdered two years ago, to make it join the latter. The AAP strategy is to see that all political outfits in the state which have broken away from the CPI(M) and other parties to merge in it so that the party emerges as a potent third alternative capable of solving the people’s problems.
The response to the AAP’s efforts in this direction would depend upon the success the party achieves in the Lok Sabha elections. If the party manages to win an impressive number of seats, as is likely, then there is every possibility of smaller political formations gravitating towards the AAP and even merging with it.
Who will be affected the most by the AAP’s presence in the electoral ring? Opinion is divided on the issue. One stream of thought has it that Congress is going to be the hardest hit by the AAP’s presence in the electoral ring. Like in Delhi, more than the BJP, it is the Congress votes that the AAP will cut into in the state, it is pointed out. This section seems to have a point. After all, parties like the CPI(M), the CPI and the BJP are cadre-based parties. And there is unlikely to be any shifting of their committed votes to the AAP. The other section believes that the AAP’s presence will benefit the LDF. Their reasoning: the AAP won’t be able to take away the committed votes of the LDF constituents. It can only attract anti-Congress votes because of the misery the Congress-led coalition government at the Centre has heaped on the poor in the country. And there is no doubt that the phenomenal price rise and corruption are going to be the most important issues in the elections. On both counts, the Congress-led UPA Government will be at the receiving end, and it cannot escape paying a heavy penalty in terms of heavy loss of seats in the polls. So goes their argument.
Whatever the denouement, the people of Kerala, who are disenchanted with the UDF and the LDF, now have a distinct choice to make in the form of AAP. The message to the UDF and the LDF is loud and clear: If you fail to avoid the politics of deals and fail to ensure people-friendly governance, then, the State, which has blazed many a political trail, could see the emergence of another political phenomenon, signaling the decline of both and the end of the bipolar nature of Kerala’s polity. (IPA Service)