By Srinivasan K. Rangachary
The Election Com-mission on Wednesday set the schedule for the 16th Lok Sabha. A nine phase poll from April 7 to May 12 is to be held, with the counting of votes scheduled for May 16. For the first time, voters will have a choice of “none of the others” to register their protest against the candidates and parties on offer.
And for the first time ever, there will be a paper trail in the electronic polling machines, to assuage the fears of those who argued that these could be manipulated. Transparency being the essence of democracy, the EC has taken all due steps to ensure a free and fair poll. From the single day, countrywide poll in the first couple of elections, a nine- phase poll spread over five weeks underlines the sea change in the country. Not only has the electorate grown manifold, but the placid one party polity of the first few general elections has given way to an intensely competitive political field.
The Congress reaped rich electoral dividends in the first couple of general elections, having cleverly converted itself from an omnibus freedom movement to a political party. It was said of those early times in the life of the Republic that even an electric pole strung with the Congress’s election symbol could be elected to Parliament.
Another vital change is that no longer are the Lok Sabha and the state legislatures co- terminus.
From the early voting system, when voters could literally carry the ballot papers outside the polling booth and hand it over to the agent of their preferred candidate for a consideration, to the technologically sophisticated electronic voting machines, Indian democracy has come a long way. Bogus voting was easier then. So was booth capturing.
Indeed, the underpriv-ileged in the rural areas were at the mercy of the high caste overlords for even exercising their voting right. Often, their votes were cast by the upper castes. A growing political awareness, advanced technology and a fierce competition among political parties have all helped to make the people far more aware than, say, in the early Pandit Nehru- Indira Gandhi years. Voters are not so easily fooled by catchy slogans or false promises. This deepening of the democratic process poses a challenge for all political parties, insofar as the people want performance rather than mere sloganeering.
Given that the record of the outgoing ruling party invariably determines popular voting preferences, the Congress led UPA undoubtedly is on the back foot. Its disastrous record in government is bound to find reflection in the 2014 mandate. The Manmohan Singh government has very little on the positive side, a lot on the debit side.
Therefore, it should not come as a surprise if the grand old party faces a complete rout in the coming election. Indeed, there seems to be a near unanimity that the party might end up with the lowest ever tally in this election. On the other hand, the Narendra Modi- led BJP seems to be on a roll, set to emerge, by all accounts, the single largest party in the 16th Lok Sabha with 200- plus seats.
Catastrophic misman-agement of the country by the UPA has further embellished the popular image of Modi as a doer. After a prolonged period of an invisible prime minister, who does not seem to be in command even of his ministers, never mind the country, people seem to crave a strong leader who can set things right, can revive the economy and generally manage things more efficiently. Also, alliances would play a role in the final outcome. But here again Congress finds itself isolated because (a) nobody wants to tie up with a loser; and, (b) the party seems to lack a leader who is well versed in the art of negotiations.
Here again, Modi has taken the lead by embracing the symbolically significant Ram Vilas Paswan. More seem to be on the way. Yes, there are fears that the newbie Aam Aadmi Party of Arvind Kejriwal could prove the proverbial fly in the Modi ointment, but that these fears may be vastly exaggerated. Voters no longer are ready to be duped by spoilers.
Given that Kejriwal have no proven record, and a lot to answer for the 49 day mess in Delhi, media hype alone cannot be sufficient reason for the voters to pass up an opportunity for a strong and stable government.
Besides, the electoral footprint of AAP is limited to certain sections in Delhi, though it might garner a few votes elsewhere as well, just as noisy independents tend to do in most elections. All said and done, this is an election a vast majority of Indians seem to be keenly looking forward to, in order to penalise those who betrayed their trust in the 2009 poll. Unless something drastic alters the situation on the ground, the outcome of the poll seems to be a foregone conclusion.
In a postscript, one might add here that despite all its flaws, all its shortcomings — and only the purblind would deny these aren’t there — the most heartening thing is that democracy has struck deep roots in the Indian soil. It is something to celebrate as a nation. And every voter must do that by participating actively in the electoral process. INAV