By Moses Kharbithai
With the general election festival already around the corner and the first phase and last phase scheduled on 7thApril and 12thMay, 2014 respectively, nearly 820 million registered voters will exercise their electoral franchise to choose the 543 Indian lawmakers the country will have in the lower house at this historical political juncture. As the electoral battle is gearing up, this particular election seems to script another distinct Indian political history with indications that this is no longer a bipolar race between Narendra Modi vs Rahul Gandhi, as sections of the corporate media are trying to project. Rather on a closer look, this election so far seems characterised by multiple contests between the dominant NDA and UPA alliances and the various alternative and regional parties, along with the hope of a comeback by the diminishing left front and the rise of Aam Aadmi Party taking on the might of the dominant two party system in India. If regional forces along with other smaller secular parties can create a third political space, they will make their presence relevant in the national politics. In a scenario where if the two major political alliances fail to get a simple majority of 272 seats, the natural players will be the third political alliance which might emerge as a game-changer in the formation of the next government in New Delhi. Such a possibility of fractured mandate and the emergence of a non-Congress and non- BJP front holding the key cannot be overlooked. With realization that regional parties will make a major dent in states like Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh (Seemandhra and Telengana), West Bengal and the North-East which together comprise a total of more than 189 seats, the BJP-led NDA has made all efforts to consolidate their strength in other cow-belt areas including Northern and Western India which altogether comprise 354 seats. Considering that there are other electoral factors like caste, religion etc in these areas, that target may not be theoretically impossible but it is nonetheless a difficult task for them to muster 272 seats.
The RSS and its ideological brethren the VHP, both rightwing Hindutva groups have found a scion in Narendra Modi, the embodiment of institutional partnership of the alleged state-sponsored genocide against religious minorities in Gujarat for an arranged marriage of what is called soft Hindutva with the latter’s model of development plank. Under such a forceful pursuit of communal flavour to development, the hope of secularism prevailing in India will depend on how secular votes can consolidate in favour of the strongest regional secular forces against the Modi factor in northern and western India. Thus, tactical approach may force religious minorities and other secularist forces to combine their strength behind the BSP in Uttar Pradesh, JD (U) in Bihar, and the AAP in Delhi and to a certain extent in Haryana.
Apart from these areas, the Hindutva brigades on the other hand, also still have their firm footing in states like Punjab, Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, and Karnataka where there seems to be a direct contest with the Congress-led UPA. The increasingly discredited UPA, tainted with issues of inflation, corruption, inequality among population, lack of clarity in policy making in its second term is threatened for a rout due to the anti-incumbency wave. In fact, the out-going regime was in stark contrast to its predecessor the UPA-I when the Left Front’s outside support to a certain extent could blend social democratic measure as a balm to the poor in appeasement to the many legitimate grievances of the people against the government. The attempt to emulate the same policy just few months before election with the passing of National Food Security Bill and Lok Pal Bill, rather than helping the UPA to revive its lost ground, as perceived has instead back fired as ambiguous policy and lack of perspective on the part of the government. In such a context of an apparent defeat of the UPA, the danger however seems to be the takeover by a communal fascist force like the RSS backed BJP with Narendra Modi, the symbol of communalism and neoliberal development, at the helm affairs.
The doable rise of RSS backed BJP in the electoral numbers game however cannot be ruled out from the media hype that is massively colluding with colossal push from corporate houses that seek to exploit from the record of Narendra Modi’s carte blanche in Gujarat. The backing of big capital for Modi is evident from the use of costly advertisements showcasing him and the so-called industrially developed state of Gujarat in every space on the internet, media advertisements, etc. But one must not be carried away by the Gujarat’s model which is steeped in paradoxes. The very fact that Gujarat is the state with a debt of 1.76 lakh crore and the highest in the country show that, it is primarily pro-capitalist and an anti-poor, anti people growth. While there is claim of industrial development in Gujarat, its performance in terms of social indicators is lacklustre; infamous for rising inequality, poverty, and high infant mortality rates. Therefore, industrial growth through concessions to the rich cannot be termed as development in the comprehensive sense of the term. Development in Gujarat is exclusively for the rich. Apart from this enormous danger of crony capitalism that is set to take advantage of the situation, there is also an underlying threat to the secular-democratic fabric of India if the RSS-backed BJP is allowed to come to power in Delhi. In a country with such diverse communities with different religious backgrounds, faiths, and where even agnostics and atheists co-exist, if people see that the alternative to the diminishing Congress party is only the RSS-backed BJP, that be a black era in the political history of the nation.
The RSS has always been associated with the most horrendous communal crimes in India, right from the killing of Mahatma Gandhi by its activist, Nathuram Godse, the alleged state-sponsored genocide of Muslims in Gujarat, Mumbai communal riots in December 1992, demolition of the historic Babri mosque, the killing of the Christian missionary, Graham Staines in Keonjhar, Odisha, by the Bajrang Dal (an associate group of RSS) and several other cases of torture, killing and intimidation against minorities wherever they have their associate organisations. The recent Home Ministry list of ten “Hindutva terrorists” based on the forensic evidence provided by the Indian intelligence confirming the involvement of RSS in various bomb explosion cases depict the danger the nation is heading to if such forces are allowed to take over the reins of the country.While the BJP is hyperbolic on the corruption charges against Congress, it is silent on the corruption charges against B. K Yeddurappa, Nitin Gadkari and many others. In short, both the BJP and Congress are breeding the same set of neoliberal economic policies, pro rich and corrupt are equally responsible for the exponential increase in economic inequalities, inflation and corruption.
Therefore, with a discredited Congress-led UPA on the one hand and the perilous rise of a communal-fascist BJP on the other, what India needs is a real non-Congress and non-BJP alternative. Probably allowing a credible third alternative will ensure greater autonomy and power to the states and regional parties. Such an alternative will ensure that the constitutional provisions of federalism will remain the principle to counter a unitary bias towards a strong centre. With strong regional forces sans alliance with NDA or UPA, the future for interrogating issues of effectiveness of indigenous grassroots governance, sixth schedule, AFSPA, etc., can be certainly fore-grounded if as expected larger regional parties like the AIADMK in Tamil Nadu, AITC in West Bengal, BSP in Uttar Pradesh, YRS Congress in Seemandhra, BJD in Odisha, JD (S) in Karnataka and even regional political force from Northeast India like NERPF (if they reconsider their pledged alliance with NDA) and many others come together to save the country and its poor and minority population.
With the Left Front on the declining trend, UPA seems destined with less than 114 seats, NDA struggling to obtain 272 seats, it will be the opportunity of these regional forces to unite for a non-Congress and non BJP combine in the post-poll scenario where their possibility of gaining more than 150 seats will determine the nature of next government in Delhi. The existing political reality has it that such alternative government on the basis of common minimum programme anchored around federal principles cannot be possible without the support of Congress or the BJP. Time will tell about such eventuality after the counting of votes. But one thing is clear if non BJP non Congress regional parties support a BJP-led NDA government, as they have done in their previous experiments, they will certainly betray the cause, hope, and secular democratic aspiration of the people of India. But if they can muster the 150 figure which is certainly possible and with the acceptance of AAP rising day by day, they can net the Congress to support such an alternative secular government, and if that is possible they will redeem the nation from its current political crisis.