It is not surprising that the Trinamool Party (TMC) has scored resounding victories in the Bongaon parliamentary and Krishangunj assembly by-polls in West Bengal. What is surprising is that Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee said “it’s a miracle result”. If she chose her words correctly, it means that the results were not expected. The TMC has been sweeping the polls since the Assembly results, followed by overwhelming success in the parliamentary and civic polls. Its success has in all these elections shown an upward trajectory. In the Bangaon and Krishangunj bypolls, the party only retained its vote share; in fact there has been a slight fall. Of course, the party has been singed by the Saradha fire, the arrest of one minister and the defection of another compounded by the suspected duplicity of star general, Mukul Roy. But did Mamata Banerjee think that the threats to her party were so serious that the results could be otherwise, especially in constituencies with a sizeable Muslim electorate? Was she disturbed by BJP victory in South Basirhat? West Bengal voters are still swayed by the Mamata magic. Apprehension in the TMC shows some awareness of the ground reality.
What may be worrying is the growing ascendancy of the BJP in secular West Bengal. Its vote share in both constituencies has increased significantly. The Bengali voter does not see much distinction between the VHP and the BJP and should not have taken kindly to reconversion in Birbhum. The BJP’s wipeout in Delhi has had little effect in West Bengal, where it is becoming the main opposition. The increase in its vote share has been entirely at the cost of the CPI (M). The CPI (M) high command is eyeless in Delhi and West Bengal leaders like Buddhadev Bhattacharjee and Biman Bose appear adrift in the party headquarters in Kolkata.