THE earthquake that devastated Nepal on Saturday and jolted northern India, damaging buildings as far apart as Agra and Siliguri, was expected by geologists, who have warned of more Himalayan earthquakes caused by the growing pressures of the sub-continent grinding into the Asian mainland. The devastation in Nepal was mainly due to the collapse of buildings which could not withstand the intensity of the quake measuring 7.9 on the Richter scale. Anyone who has visited Nepal would not fail to observe the unstable nature of the buildings and their poor maintenance. But India is not far behind. In India builders violate the building laws with impunity. Buildings are known to collapse even when there are neither minor tremors nor no tremors. Many buildings in India would fail to meet the standards prescribed in “Indian Standards Criteria for Earthquake Resistant Design” published by the Bureau of Indian Standards in 1962 with the latest revision in 2005. These standards are compromised hence if an earthquake should strike this sub-continent the devastation would be unimaginable. Yet lawmakers continue to push this issue under the carpet as if the D-Day would never arrive. This is an exercise in self-deception but with tragic consequences. Across this country high-rises are springing up and promise the best of ultra-modern facilities but no one questions the safety standards. Only the Delhi Metro is one of the few Indian structures built to withstand a quake. Some lessons have been imbibed by states that faced major disasters though. For instance several houses built in Bhuj after the Gujarat quake of 2001 are now earthquake-resistant.
The Government of India today lists 38 cities in moderate to high-risk seismic zones. A United Nations document says that the majority of the constructions in these cities are not earthquake-resistant and in the event of a quake any one of these cities would be turned into rubble. The Himalayas and north India are on particularly shaky ground. The Indian plate skewed north, displaced an ancient sea, and travelled more than 2,000 km – the fastest a plate has ever moved – and slammed into the Eurasian plate, creating the Himalayas. Hence the fragility of the Himalayan region. No Indian metropolis has witnessed a serious earthquake, although Delhi lies in high-risk seismic zone 4. Srinagar, Guwahati, Shillong are in the highest-risk zone 5, and Mumbai, Chennai and Kolkata lie in zone 3. History serves a warning that a big one may come at any time. Those lessons come from Bihar in 1934 and Assam in 1950. Geologists says that the 1950 Assam earthquake may have geologically set the stage for a really big one in the Himalayas. Now that 65 years have passed, it may be time for a big one. And we are hardly prepared for it!
