The huge turn-out (80%) n the first phase of the Assam election in 65 constituencies suggests a vote for change. Translated literally this would mean a change from the Congress to the BJP-AGP-BPF combine. The only other Party that promises change along the line of the Aam Aadmi Party was able to put up only 14 candidates overall. While they may win a few seats they are unlikely to be the game changers. Voting in Assam has revolved around the issue of illegal immigration. This time too a fear psychosis is being spread that if the communally inclined All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) led by perfume baron Badhruddin Ajmal gets substantial number of seats and becomes the crucial factor for government formation by any of the major political parties then Assam could become more vulnerable and its flanks further opened up for influx from across the international border.
Close to 60% of voters in Assam are young and aspirational. They are not led by emotions or communal frenzy but are driven by a hard, pragmatic outlook at whether the next government can deliver growth which in turn will generate economic opportunities. This is the demography that will decide the outcome of the Assam elections. For too long the political parties in Assam have capitalized on the fear and paranoia that voters are obsessed with, which is that of being outnumbered by Bangladeshi immigrants. This has been the election plank right from the 1980’s when the Assam Movement was at its height and the Asom Gana Parishad was later voted to rule Assam. The AGP was replaced by the Congress which has had a 15-year uninterrupted rule. The Congress has not taken the issue of detecting these illegal immigrants seriously enough. On the contrary the illegal immigrants have been known to be Congress vote banks. Recently the Supreme Court pulled up an official of the state government for failing to give a convincing answer as to what the government has done to detect and deport illegal immigrants and those who have overstayed their visa period. Hence the Congress pitch about protecting the interests of the indigenous Assamese is riddled with holes. It remains to be seen how the next phase of the elections pan out. But any which way we look at it, change is imminent.
