BRICS MUST HAVE A JOINT APPROACH AT G-20
By Arun Srivastava
Theoretically, the Group of Twenty (G20) meeting on 4–5 September 2016 in Hangzhou would focus on global governance; role in the global economy and gaining leverage through strategic partnerships but in reality it would be used as a forum by the USA and Obama administration to accomplish its unfinished agenda of Australian G20 summit of 2014 of bullying China and Russia.
After two years though the global political and economic scenario has undergone major changes, the Obama administration has been marginalized at the global level, yet the USA views the summit as the best opportunity to take on China and Russia. At Brisbane, Barrack Obama had sent a veiled warning to Beijing against bullying in the Asia-Pacific. He had also insisted Asia’s security order must not be based on “coercion or intimidation where big nations bully the small, but on alliances for mutual security”. USA wants China to be a “responsible actor” and “adhere to the same rules as other nations, whether in trade or on the seas”, implying revival of American hegemony.
In fact the USA move to take India on its defence board and sign a military deal is primarily aimed at countering China in the region. With crisis deepening in Syria, Ukraine, Islamic State and Ebola one may hope that Obama administration would adopt a more pragmatic stance instead of putting the G20 at risk. One thing is quite explicit with USA hegemony on decline China and Russia would not like to succumb to the pressure tactics of Obama and the summit may witness a modification in its stand and resolutions.
Significantly, Chinese President Xi Jinping has already made that it will host the G20 summit with the theme of “promoting the innovative, dynamic, concerted and inclusive world economy.” The G20 would transform from merely being a “fire brigade” for crisis management to a mechanism for policy coordination in finance, fiscal management and monetary measures.
The Summit theme matches the new developmental strategy of China as pronounced at the fifth session of CPC’s 18th Congress, to develop an “innovative, coordinated, green, open and sharing economy” for the 2016-2020 period. G20 members are engaged in meeting the target of additional 2% GDP growth by 2018 as set by its Brisbane Summit in 2014. At the same time, they are fully occupied in addressing global challenges such as climate change, geo-political hot spots, the widening gap between rich and poor, and last but not the least increasing terrorist attacks.
G20 members are euphoric of China leading a better coordination of macro-economic and financial policies. The global community of economies with ever increasing interdependence has become a reality and no economy could even hope to go it alone. The significant role China has played in the G20 since the2008 global financial crisis has increased its confidence in global economic governance.
The evolution of China-US relationship needs to be carefully watched. During the Cold War, the China-US relationship was built on a common strategy to Soviet. The Soviet threat was a unifying factor. However the new phase of China-US relationship features friction. More and more friction between China and US are visible on a number of issues like the South China Sea, cyber security, trade disputes, human rights and IPR. Ever since China emerged as the second largest economy in the world, US has been nursing a typical hostility towards it.
It is unlikely that the G20 summit would bring the two powers closer and resolve their differences. The dynamics of getting stronger and powerful has its own dimension. The USA now treats China as its enemy. There is lingering suspicion in the minds of the politicians of USA that a powerful China would eclipse it in the South East Asia. Already
China is an important member of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). Obviously there is a need to assess China’s roles in the G20 and the BRICS. In recent months is has strained its relations with India on the issue of Pakistani terrorist Hafiz Sayeed. One thing is absolutely clear that China’s interests have become global and this is accompanied by a domestic debate about what kind of role China should play in the world. The growing importance of China at the global stage is reflected by its role in the G20 and the BRICS.
The G20 is seen in China as an important consultation mechanism for the governments, where it is good to have a seat at the table. For the emerging countries, the G20 is a platform for finding new roles in international affairs. China has also taken the initiative for creating an alternative media platform for the emerging economies by hosting the first media summit of countries belonging to the Brazil-Russia-India-China-South Africa (BRICS) grouping.
The long-term cohesiveness of the BRICS has always been in question. However, BRICS is still important for China. Chinese Finance Minister Lou Jiwei already defended the biggest result of BRICS cooperation: a Shanghai-based New Development Bank. No doubt BRICS matters for China when it is playing its role as a representative of emerging markets. At the last BRICS meeting of finance ministers and central bankers in Moscow in July, 2015, the five countries worked out details for the BRICS Contingent Reserve Arrangement, a US$100 billion liquidity support scheme that could replace some functions of International Monetary Fund.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said that India will focus on building “responsive, inclusive, collective solutions. It attaches the highest importance to BRICS. We are honoured to assume the Chairmanship of BRICS from February 1, 2016 and build on the great work done by other members. The New Development Bank, the Currency Reserve Arrangement, Strategy for BRICS Economic Cooperation – these are clear evidence of our vision and our resolve. Together, we can also give shape to G20”. He stressed.“We are pleased that China takes over the Presidency of G20 in December 2015. We assure China our full support,”
There are growing differences between Russia and the US, as well as between China and the US, and in this background BRICS will play the role of an important global alternative to the so called global West. It is pertinent to point out that the United States and the “global West” get irritated by the positions of Russia, China and other BRICS countries, which often offer alternative solutions to the global problems. While the BRICS’ members advocate dialogue and compromise the US harps on military force and coercion. Recently the USA had dispatched a group of American aircraft carriers from the US Navy’s 7th Fleet to South China Sea with a clear aim of “checking China’s ambition”.
The March 11 meetings of China’s foreign minister Wang Yi with Putin and Lavrov revealed that Russia and China, two key BRICS’ member countries, saw mutual cooperation as a key to their survival and independence in the face of Western pressure. Cooperation not only with China, but also with the remaining BRICS’ members India, Brazil, and South Africa is underway in the framework of the New Development Bank, or NDB, a BRICS’ project.
Unfortunately the global west has been projecting political crisis in Brazil over economic mismanagement and high-level corruption as bursting of the Brics bubble. Brazil’s woes have been compounded by the possibility of impeachment Dilma Rousseff, the president, and the trial of her predecessor, LuizInácio Lula da Silva (Lula).
A fortnight back the foreign ministers of Russia, India, and China (RIC) met for a trilateral meeting in Moscow to discuss international and regional issues. The RIC trilateral has met annually since 2002 and partly led to the expansion of the trilateral to eventually incorporate Brazil and South Africa as the BRICS. In recent years, the RIC has functioned as a complement to other frameworks involving Russia, India, and China. Though the RIC meetings focus on exchange views between the three countries on larger issues, the trilateral is limited by the proximity of the bilateral relationships contained within it.
Moscow hosted a trilateral meeting of foreign ministers of Russia, India and China on April 18. This is the only format of communication of the three major Asian powers, with testy relationships in the past, that does not include other region. Secondly, the format serves as an important stabilizer for the bilateral relations of the three countries, and finally the ambition to create political institutions that would serve the Asian Century would need to have these three countries at the helm. If the leaders of the three countries Russia, India and China want to have their independent say in G20 and make BRICS work in a more meaningful manner, they must energise and empower the RIC. (IPA Service)