By H H Mohrmen
The storm in the Congress party is over and Dr Mukul Sangma may have overcome the leadership crisis, but the threat now for the party is whether the BJP’s ‘Congress-free Meghalaya’ slogan becomes a reality. After the BJP had won the Assam assembly elections it is now gung-ho on how to decimate the Congress party in the next general elections. And while the Congress leaders are still trying to lick their wounds from the internal fight within the party, the BJP is beginning to lay the necessary step to make the party’s dream come true.
The bipolar or tri-polar leadership crisis, the Mukul-Vincent-Lapang faction, the Mukul-Vincent-Preston or the Mukul-Vincent- Pynshngain faction within the Congress has done a lot of damage to the party. The problem with the Congress is that one out of every two MLAs in the party is a potential Chief Ministerial candidate. Even old warhorses like D.D. Lapang and Rowel Lyngdoh who should have been satisfied with their achievements and get ready for retirement are still on the race for the top job in the state. This is also what makes it difficult for the Congress High Command in Delhi to decide, because everybody has his own axe to grind and nobody puts the party’s interest above their own selfish interests.
Vincent Pala is in catch-22 situation; he has a secret desire to be the Chief Minister of the state but he also knows that even if he is elected as the Congress leader in the house he can remain as Chief Minister of the state for six months only. After a lapse of the six month’s he has to be elected from any legislative assemble constituency and this is not an easy proposition. Who amongst the incumbent MLAs will sacrifice their seat for him for the sake of the party’s stability? That is a million dollar question. It would have been easy if the party was in power in Delhi. Then the Congress could have just recommend to the President the name of Dr R C Laloo as Governor to any state and Pala can then contest the election to the Jowai L.A. Constituency. Now that is an impossible task. And even if Dr Laloo plans to retire from politics before the 2018 election, (even though there no such thing as retirement for politicians) but he would still like to complete this race wouldn’t he?
The Congress and the public may or may not like it but the only option left is for Dr Sangma to continue to be at the helm of power in the Party and in the State for at least till the next election. And the Congress leaders will have to wait till the next election to see if they can replace Dr Sangma with another leader. But the big question is will the Congress win the next general election again? Or will the MUA II under the leadership of Dr Sangma even survive till the end of the 2013-18 term of the Assembly?
There is a section of the population which thinks that MUA II will not even last till the end of the term and political pundits are all busy predicting an Assam-like split in the Congress party in Meghalaya. But the question is who will be the Himanta Biswa Sarma of the Congress in Meghalaya. Who amongst the leaders has the capability and the capacity to engineer a split in the Congress? Pynshngain is a lone ranger; he is not popular even amongst the Congress MDCs in the Khasi Hills Autonomous District Council. D D Lapang and Prestone do not have the required support to even win a leadership post in the party so, we are left with the two young dynamic leaders of the party, that is Vincent Pala and Dr Mukul Sangma.
Vincent Pala has the capacity and the capability to do the job for his friend Himanta; for old time’s sake, but is he willing to sacrifice his membership in the Lok Sabha? If Pala plans to engineer the split ( and his background is engineering anyway) then he will have to resign from his membership in the Lok Sabha before 2018 and his second term as the member of the Lok Sabha from Shillong parliamentary constituency will only end in the next general election which is in 2019.
It may be worth mentioning that it was the by-election to the Umroi constituency and subsequent change of government in the state which has catapulted a mere Executive Engineer in the PWD to the political limelight. And throughout the political drama Dr Himanta Biswa Sarma (then Congress MLA from Assam) was part of the team which helped the Congress win the election and also helped install the Congress-led government in Meghalaya so Pala and Himanta are no strangers to each other.
Pala may have the support of at least all the four independent MLAs from Jaintia hills who are now associate members of the Congress party, but a leader of his stature will certainly have some more Congress MLAs from Khasi hills supporting him. And it is an open secret that Pala is very close to the BJP leadership in Delhi. Dr Sangma already has three MLAs with him so if at all he is planning to split the party it will be easy for him to have the numbers. But the problem with Dr Sangma is that the BJP already has an alliance with the NPP in Garo hills and obviously they already have the winning formula.
While the Congress leaders are fighting among themselves, the BJP is already in the process of realizing that the Party’s goal is within reach. Dr. Sangma may see it differently but the truth is there for all to see that a united opposition to the Congress is the party’s worst nightmare in the state and even in Garo hills. The recent by-election to the Tura Lok Sabha seat is the classic case in point and this will repeat if the regional parties in the Garo hills remain united.
Now the next move towards making the BJP dream come true is to plan its move in the Khasi and Jaintia hills region of the state. The Khasi and Jaintia Hills have never been a Congress stronghold anyway and the voters in these regions are unpredictable. This is where Pala could be a better bet for the BJP. But the only dilemma is that Pala is not a member of any regional party. However, Pala can engineer a split in the Congress party and replicate what Himanta did in Assam and join en mass with the BJP, then that will be the end of Congress and Dr Mukul Sangma after 2018.
The end of the Congress influence in the state will also happen if the BJP could enter into alliance with the regional parties in the Khasi and Jaintia hills. If the party really wants to see a Congress-free Meghalaya, then it should make sure that the opposition votes do not split. As long as there is a split in the opposition vote share, it will always be advantage Congress.
If the Congress really wants to stop the BJP from making its dream of a Congress-free Meghalaya from happening, then the first and the foremost duty of the leaders of the party is to bury their hatchets and plan for the next general election. It is obvious that the Garo hills region is within the reach of NPP-BJP alliance and if the Congress wants to stop the BJP-NPP alliance from taking over Garo hills, Dr Sangma needs to work extremely hard. The Khasi Jaintia unit of the party also need to put their heads, their hands and their hearts together to win the 2018 election. The BJP’s Congress-free Meghalaya is looming large over the state’s horizon and only the Congress can prevent that from happen.