By H H Mohrmen
It is exactly one and half years to 2018 the general election year to the state Assembly and it is also time for political parties to solicit alliances. It is therefore of no surprise to see that several alliances have already been proposed in preparation for the coming election. The political situation in the state is such that except for the Congress no party is confident of facing the election all by itself; not even the mighty BJP, so there are proposed alliances from left and right.
For reasons best known to UDP leadership the party took the bait and entered into a grand alliance with the BJP vide the North East Democratic Alliance (NEDA) to eradicate Congress from the region. It is however not the same with the NPP which has already had an alliance with the NDA before the 2014 general election when the party was under the leadership of its former supreme leader late P.A. Sangma. And the other Assam-based regional parties had also been part of the BJP led pre-poll alliance and now the BJP led government in the state.
Everybody knew of the BJP’s grand plan in all of this which is to rid the Congress from region and the entire country and I think this is a very dangerous ploy. The sole objective of the BJP to eradicate the Congress which is the only remaining national party from the entire country is not good for democracy in India. Right now the only objective of the BJP under the leadership of Amit Shah and Prime Minister Narendra Modi is for the BJP to replace India’s own Grand Old Party (GOP) as the only national party with a presence in the entire country. Of course there is no harm in that, but the consequences or the outcome of achieving that objective is a threat to democracy in the country.
The BJP like everyone else saw the rise of regional parties in the political scenario of almost all the states in the entire country. Every state has at least two or more regional parties which can influence the decision of the voters, hence there is only room for one national party in this entire scheme of things. Previously the Congress had staunchly occupied this space, but now the opportunity is open for the BJP to claim that space. There is no harm in that but to try eliminate options is bad for democracy. The BJP has also realized that the survival of the NDA post 2019 will also depends largely on the support of these regional parties, because it will not be able to repeat the 2014 feat again, hence such alliance(s) are vital.
This is a dangerous preposition because if the BJP succeeds in its plan then there will be no alternative to the BJP. In the future only the BJP led government will rule the country at the national level and the opposition in the parliament will comprises of tens of regional parties with no unity and cohesion. The country had experienced that same situation in its more than seventy years history after it had attained independence and then it was the Congress which was the only Grand Old Party (GOP) in the country. Maybe it is not wrong to say that the Congress is now in a mess because it has taken the position it occupied for so long as the only GOP in the country for granted.
Therefore for a healthy democracy we need a viable and a strong alternative not only at the state level but more importantly at the national level. We therefore need both the Congress and the BJP to be strong to offer the country alternative coalitions. The voters need to have viable choices in every election. Since coalition is imminent it is therefore for the benefit of the country and for its citizen’s own good that to have a healthy democracy we have feasible alternatives be it, a BJP led or a Congress led coalition government and strong opposition led by either the BJP or the Congress.
Coming to Meghalaya, BJP’s position in the state is still at its nascent stage to say the least. The party on its own will not be able to come up with numbers to rule the state in the ensuing Assembly election, so it is desperately in need of an alliance in Meghalaya. Maybe the UDP had only looked at the local situation and not at the party’s grand plans at the national level so it quickly enter into the alliance with the BJP, and the BJP, NPP and UDP alliance will certainly have great prospects in the post 2018 election had it not been for another alternative alliance in the offing.
At the state level the other option that could accomplish the goal of getting rid of both the national parties is to have a coalition of only regional parties in the state. This brilliant idea was first proposed by the president of the HSPDP Ardent Miller Basaiawmoit and then KHNAM also joined the chorus. Now the UDP is in a sticky wicket. Will it continue with the BJP, NPP, UDP alliance or will it join the all regional parties alliance which is again another viable alternative in the state.
The question is also whether this will work? This is certainly not the first time the regional parties in Meghalaya had tried to come under one banner. The minds of the people are still fresh with memories of many effort to come up with a single united regional party in the state. The first instance was when the regional parties were dissolved and the outcome of that effort is the Hills People Union (HPU), then again there was an effort to merge all regional parties and the outcome of that merger is the United Democratic Party. In all these previous efforts, it was the HSPDP which has chosen to stay out of the merger and continued to walk solo while all the regional parties were dissolved to make way for the new united party. This however is history; maybe the new attempt will bear fruit.
Should the UDP continue with the BJP grand alliance or shift to the proposed all regional parties’ alliance in the state? This is not an easy question. And since it is still the single largest regional party in the state it will certainly be able to tilt the balance to whichever coalition it chooses to side with. In the case of the other two major regional parties, since both the parties are campaigning for bifurcation of Meghalaya into Garo and Khasi Jaintia state, the HSPDP like the NPP will remain a region specific party in the ensuing election. Though HSPDP already started organizing its party units and tried to make inroads into many nooks and corners of the Khasi and Jaintia hills region of the state, one will have to wait and see if it will be able to make any difference in the 2018 election. The issue here is if the two parties cannot come into understanding then it is certain that in the coming election both the UDP and HSPDP will be fighting each other and their common enemy the Congress to win the votes of the people in the two regions. And from previous experience we have seen that in every triangular fight it is always advantage Congress.
Whichever way the coalition goes, be it the BJP, NPP and UDP alliance or the all regional parties’ alliance, it is the Congress which is the common enemy of all the parties. Shillong MP Vincent Pala is right that the BJP still has a long way to go to be able to influence the voters in the state. Hence for the Congress in Meghalaya the BJP is not the enemy number one, but the united regional parties is the party’s worst nightmare. The GOP knows that as long as the regional parties are fighting their own battles then the chance of the party forming a government or a Congress led coalition government is still bright. As for the other national parties it will still be an arduous journey and the BJP in Meghalaya will still have to ride piggy-back on some other party/parties at least in the foreseeable 2018 election.