NARENDRA MODI’S GAMBLE WILL FACE TEST IN UTTAR PRADESH ASSEMBLY POLL
By Nitya Chakraborty
One month is already over since Prime Minister Narendra Modi singlehandedly went for the gamble by demonetising the high value Rs. 500 and Rs. 1,000 notes from the midnight of November 8.The opposition parties have been paralysing the Parliament proceedings on the issue while hundreds of people are still queuing before the ATMs and the banks with a large majority failing to withdraw their own funds. It has been a total paralysis in the banking system and all seasoned economists are saying that the demo0netisation with the objective of unearthing black money, has been a thoroughly wrong step and the Prime Minister made a massive blunder by taking this unprecedented step without adequate preparations at the RBI and the commercial banks level.
On December 7, at the monetary policy committee meeting of the RBI, Governor Dr. Urjit Panel failed to give any indication when the situation will be normal. He only gave some general observations that the situation was improving. Rather former Finance Minister P. Chidambaram, with solid facts on the basis of his information from sources in the Government came out with the startling observation that the situation would not return to normalcy even after six months and the objective of unearthing of black money will be defeated as fresh channels will be created for generating black funds from new notes. What was the need for giving such serious pains for a long term then? What is the objective of the Prime Minister Narendra Modi?
Herein comes the crucial issue. Narendra Modi is not a fool. He might have gambled and has taken risks but there is a method in his madness. He has some calculations and he is working in that direction by focusing all the attention on cashless society and digitilisation instead of unearthing black money. His focus is now the assembly elections in the five states and especially Uttar Pradesh. Narendra Modi wants to get political sanction from the people of Uttar Pradesh through BJP in te next state poll in early 2017 and before that in the election campaign, he will test his popularity by making the demonetisation and the budget proposals to be presented on February 1 as his campaign plank.
There are two aspects of the Prime Minister’s planning. Modi is preparing a plan to make use of the Jhan Dhan deposits available with the Banks by filling the coffers of these small depositors with a minimum amount of Rs. 30,000 to Rs. 40,000 as one time deposits from the Government. This will be put as one time deposits for nearly 250 million bank depositors and this amount, Prime Minister will claim, has been mobilized from the additional funds which have been made possible as a result of his demonetisation move. This decision of the Government might be a part of the so called pro=poor budget proposals to be unfolded by the Modi government on February 1.
Simultaneously, the PM’s people have a feeling that as time will pass and the present strains are minimized, the campaign level of the Government and the BJP will be stepped up to project Modi as the Messiah against the black money and the rich and the impression will be given that in Uttar Pradesh, all other parties including Samajwadi Party, BSP and the Congress are depending on black funds for electoral campaign and they are most bitter as a result of demonetisation.BJP under Narendra Modi, is the only Party which has effectively fought the black money evil and organized substantial bank deposits for the poor from the ill gotten wealth of the rich. If the JDY borrowers really get bulk amount from the Government before UP and Punjab polls, that will have some impact in influencing the sentiment in favour of Narendra Modi.
That way Modi is looking at the coming assembly elections as a referendum in favour of his programme. This is a make or break situation for him. He is agog with the idea that he is on the verge of building a cashless digital highly industrialized India and he will be remembered for this pioneering role in leapfrogging India. This is his political planning right now but can it click? The economics of the decision on demonetisation goes against the hard ground reality. Investments cannot pick up with this massive liquidity crunch. The informal sector is starved of funds resulting in loss of huge employment. The rural demand is not picking up and the industry can not expect demand push in the current fiscal. So on what Mr. Modi is depending for the success of his gamble?
Yes, Narendra Modi is getting confidence because of the precarious condition of the Congress and disunity among the anti- BJP parties. The Congress is yet to focus its attention on UP polls which are crucial. Sonia Gandhi is ill and Rahul Gandhi has not yet taken over officially. The Congress has to launch massive campaign for Uttar Pradesh polls and there is a need for an understanding with the SP in Uttar Pradesh. UP poll is the litmus test for both Modi and the opposition. If the BJP wins in Uttar Pradesh polls, there is no way Narendra Modi can be prevented from winning Lok Sabha polls in 2019.
Perhaps it is high time that ailing Sonia Gandhi calls a meeting of the senior leaders of the former Congress Parties like Trinamool Congress, NCP and the YSR Congress and few others belonging to the original Congress Party and work out active collaboration. The BJP can be defeated only by joint efforts of the opposition based on a sound programme. The process has to start from Uttar Pradesh. Ways have to be found out to prevent BJP from winning the largest populous state of the country which is the gateway to power at the centre. Narendra Modi has thrown up a challenge of demonetisation which is his own agenda and he is determined to make it a success for ensuring his own political future. If he succeeds, the way will be facilitated for the full takeover by Hindutva forces. The very concept of Indian nation is under threat. For the Congress, other non Left opposition and the Left, the time is running out. If BJP can be defeated in UP and Punjab, Modi juggernaut can be halted for the time being. The opposition, especially the Congress can neglect this task only at its own peril. (IPA Service)