By Yashwardhan Joshi
How will things play out for India after the US withdrawal from the Paris climate pact? Guided by its cultural heritage, India has maintained that it is committed to protecting the environment. And that commitment goes back not to 2015, when India signed the pact along with 193 other countries, but to 5,000 years ago to the age of the Vedas.
The path to cleaner environment for India and the rest of the world will, however, not be a smooth one now.
The US withdrawal means other countries would have to cut more greenhouse gases as per their pledges to make up for America’s emission targets. America had offered to cut its emissions by 26-28 per cent from the 2005 levels by 2025– a reduction of about 2 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent. Its withdrawal could now add 0.3 degrees to global warming in a worst case scenario, according to United Nation predictions.
Another setback to developing countries would be in terms of loss of financial support of 3 billion dollars and transfer of technology the US had committed under the Paris deal to help them develop sustainable energy sources.
There is, however, a silver lining as several American States, cities and businesses have denounced the US government’s decision and vowed to honour the Paris Agreement and keep working hard for a cleaner and more prosperous future for all. Among these include California, which has the sixth largest economy in the world. New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg has already offered 15 million dollars to the UN Secretariat that stands to lose from the US pulling out of the climate accord.
But every nation, including Germany and France, agrees that extra efforts will now be needed to fulfil the goal of keeping the global temperature rise to less than 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by the turn of this century.
To meet that goal, India has promised to achieve three main quantifiable targets by 2030– reduce its emission intensity (emissions per unit of GDP) by 33-35 per cent from the 2005 levels, increase its forest cover to create an additional carbon sink of 2.5-3 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent and generate at least 40 per cent of its total electricity from non-fossiled fuel sources.
Now with the US out of the pact, these targets are likely to be affected not by the absence of American funds and technology transfer, since India’s programmes are being self financed with its own technology, but by America abandoning its emissions targets and committing reopening some coal mines and slowing down reduction in coal power generation that is going to lead to more carbon dioxide in the earth’s air.
So to keep the world on the same emission pathway of within 2 degrees Celsius, others have to fill in the gap by making additional emission reductions. This includes India as well. But for India and some major players such as the European Union and Brazil, it will be daunting task as they already have far more ambitious targets and action plans.
To meet its targets, especially the one about generating at least 40 per cent of its total electricity from non-conventional sources by 2030, India is investing heavily in renewable energy. The investment is in solar power, wind power, biomass and hydro electricity in order to build 175 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2020. According to some estimates, the total investment envisaged is in the range of 175-180 billion dollars, of which about 60 billion dollars have already been made. This include half a billion dollars in green Masala bonds launched successfully by coal-burning behemoth NTPC and IREDA, the government’s funding arm for renewable projects.
The US pullout may mean scaling up these targets and more ambitious targets for the future, which would mean more investment. If this is a negative, the positive side of the pullout would mean fatter and wider sources of funding for India’s solar and other renewable energy projects since investors generally look for a country with a solid green energy policy and commitment, and may shift their interests and capital from the US to India.
With French President Emmanuel Macron arriving here at the end of the year to participate in a summit on solar power, India can play an important role in roping in more countries to promote solar energy.
India had made a significant contribution to the Paris Accord on behalf of developing countries, extracting for them favourable terms. Now it has to play a more important role after the US pullout.
(Yashwardhan Joshi is a journalist of long standing and commentator on social issues and administration)