By Toki Blah
It’s already mid June 2017 and the monsoons have finally caught up with us and so will the 2018 Meghalaya Assembly Polls which are just around the corner. In between lies the answer to the pre and post 2018 enigma of Meghalaya. What’s happening and what’s going to happen? Things are already happening and from all likelihood it’s going to be a gut- wrenching, bumpy roller coaster political ride for everyone. In the beginning there was this whole upsurge of a new found Khasi nationalism. Phew! a few months back the local media was full of it; talks of a new political dispensation for the Khasi Hills filled the air; emergence of a new breed of leaders was promised; birth of the PDF was proudly and triumphantly announced and then suddenly like the surface of a small windswept puddle, the turbulent excited waters returned to their once placid serene calmness. The wonder of it all is that everyone too then returned to their normal day to day activities as if nothing had ever happened! Did wet rain-swept Mawsynram simply undergo the experience of a mirage?
Then came the BJP and in true monsoon style politics, full of thunder and lightning. We will contest all 60 seats and no pre-poll tie-ups please, thank you so much! Enrolment drives began left, right and centre and we will form the next Govt in Meghalaya. For the first time in the political history of the state and the country as a whole, an amazing new strategy at winning hearts and minds was launched. A senior party functionary threatened to lodge FIRs against anyone who dared to speak ill of the party and its policies. Wow, Incredible self confidence really! Then came the cropper. The NDA Govt at the centre came up with rules and regulations aimed directly at crippling the sale and supply of beef cattle to the state and its people. Tradition, culture, indigenous food habits and consumption of nutritious beef suddenly came under threat and the hue and cry over the issue, mind you, has just begun. In Garo hills party members resigned in droves while in Khasi and Jaintia Hills a smouldering public resentment against the BJP, continues to fester and rise. The pompous huffing and the puffing has evaporated as the party replaces its former swagger with desperate attempts at damage control. That the BJP is resolute to back anyone and anything but the Congress is an established fact. Simply put, like poles repel each other!
In politics, solemnity of purpose can also easily blend and be indistinguishable from the absurd. The recent highly dramatised unity move of the regional parties is a case in point. HS Shylla, in his usual energetic and inimitable style, pushed, shoved, hustled and bustled to bring about a pre-poll alignment and understanding between the regional parties. A political myth called Khasi unity. Regional diehards and NGOs waved their palm fronds in happy anticipation and according to Shylla all were enthusiastically appreciative of this ‘Lai Lama’ model for regional stability. But not everyone it seems was prepared to sing Halleluia. In his enthusiasm Shylla had somehow punctured the ego factor, that majestic hot air balloon all politicians need to keep afloat and the whole thing collapsed into a farce. UDP and HSPDP, sans HS Shylla, finally rose up from the debris and came up with a comical concoction of a pre-poll alliance, watertight in all political respects but practically perforated with friendly fights. The KHNAM was classed either as a non-regional party or as inconsequential, while the PDF figured nowhere in the unity calculations. Regional unity thus continues to remain as elusive as the Holy Grail while post poll coalition with either the Congress, the NPP or the BJP is conveniently left open-ended for opportunistic politics to decide. Did someone, sometime mention clean value based politics?
Then of course there is the new kid on the block, the NPP. With a reportedly well established voter base in the Garo Hills, with invisible apron strings tied to the NDA, the party is expected to emerge as the dark horse and king maker of 2018. In the disunited Khasi & Jaintia Hills, NPP reputation precedes its physical presence, where the greatest challenge would be identifying suitable candidates in tune with the party’s political ambitions. Off hand, the task appears formidable unless, in the course of time, people jump ship to join up with the new party. Ah, lest we forget and overlook the Congress, the Grand Old Party. In 2018 the GOP will enter the polls with a huge handicap, the baggage of a decade old nonstop infighting plus 10 years tarnished incumbency. As of today the Congress seems to be gripped by a Hamlet like mindset, to oust or not to oust those who defy the party whip. A mumbling, fumbling, doddery party leadership has in no way helped boost the party image which appears paralysed and helpless, indecisiveness at its best. Yet though battered and bruised, the Congress in Meghalaya, from amongst all the other parties, still presents the face of a party still likely to cobble up a fair number of seats for itself. It might still just emerge, not on its own merit but by default, as the single largest party in the 2018 fray. It might still have a few surprises up its sleeve.
Question on everybody’s lips today is, ‘What’s going to happen next?’. Two totally different events might occur, with absolutely no connection with one another, but perhaps with the exact same outcome. The two events might be engineered or they might just happen on their own. Firstly, the ongoing KSU agitation over the Byrnihat railhead might escalate and take a turn for the worse. The law and order situation in the state, especially Khasi Hills and Shillong might deteriorate. With a BJP govt at the centre ever on the look out to settle scores with Dr Mukul, the MUA might be shown the door and the imposition of President’s rule cannot be ruled out. Secondly, there are rumours that certain Congress MLAs, including ministers, are just biding their time before they jump ship. To which ship, God only knows, but as I said, for the moment, this remains a conjecture that might or might not happen. If it however does happen and when it happens, the MUA would be reduced to a minority Govt just waiting for the centre to intervene. President’s rule in Meghalaya in the coming months is therefore not such a far-fetched possibility after all. As of now everyone appears to be frantically contributing towards it.
Another question lingers in the monsoon drenched air – who is likely to form the next Government post 2018 polls? The possibility of the Congress returning as the single largest party, because of the inability of the others to come to a united pre-poll understanding, exists as a distinct possibility. This however does not in the least mean that the Congress will automatically be invited to form the next Govt! Far from it, if past examples of Goa, Manipur and elsewhere are anything to go by. The outcome of all this will mean that political instability will again be the lot of Meghalaya for the next five years. Meghalaya politics and its politicians will continue to remain visionless and clueless. Politicians will continue to scramble for power regardless of the means and oblivious to everything else. Governance and development, despite everyone’s wishes to the contrary, will continue to nose-dive into oblivion. Leaderless and directionless, the people under the tutelage of pressure groups and traditional institution leaders will continue to waste their time on highly emotive but unproductive issues. Infrastructure, most importantly education and health will continue to be neglected at the cost of our future generations.
The irony is at the end of all this, the demand for saviours will again overshadow the need for genuine leaders. Saviours will call for further withdrawal into our shells; for more protective walls to save us; for rigidity and dogmatism in tradition to protect us from the future (ban kiar na ka lawei ba phyrnai????). A 69 % literate but thoroughly uneducated rabble will then sing its hosannas and throw its petrol bombs as a sign of approval. On unfounded fear and on such hazardous and perfidious beliefs Meghalaya and its people will continue to live out this century. May God have mercy on us all!
(Author is President of ICARE)