By H H Mohrmen
In the last few months it was the two national parties, the Congress and the BJP which have made tall claims that their party would reach the magic number of winning thirty seats in the ensuing Assembly election. Now even the NPP and the alliance of regional parties have also claimed that they will be able to come up with the magic figure since it is the desire of the people that the regional parties should come to power in the forthcoming election. Reacting to all these claims, a cynic friend with a sense of humour responded that, for the claims of all the political parties to come true, the house ought to have more than one hundred twenty seats in the next assembly.
Jokes apart, let us try to analyse the ground realities and see which party really stands a chance to cross the halfway mark, but before doing that, let us give all the parties a thumbs-up for accepting the fact as it is and coming up publicly that this time around none of them will be able to get an absolute majority. None of the parties dare to project that they would win more than thirty seats because their goal is to barely reach the halfway mark and accepting the ground reality will stand the parties in good stead.
This time the BJP’s slogan of a Congress-free Meghalaya will not be a reality precisely because of the party’s own doing. BJP’s over ambition of winning the state on its own without making any kind of pre-election pact or understanding with its NEDA alliance will only help the Congress. The Congress is still a major player in state because it is still in control of the two Autonomous District Councils. So for the Congress, it is always better to have multiple contestants than a straight fight.
The recent development in the JHADC also proves that the Congress is still in control of the ADC when Thombor Shiwat who is suspected to be on Sniawbhalang’s side was unceremoniously removed from the office of the CEM of the Council and was replaced by a Andrew Shullai a first time MDC.
The next best contender to the Congress is the NPP, but the party’s lack of discipline is one factor that could hamper its chance. This was evident from the fact that few months back the party’s MDCs resigned en-mass to join the Congress and formed a new Congress-led Executive Committee in the Garo Hills ADC. NPP supporters can claim that they have a better chance of winning Garo hills since the party president has only recently won the by-election to the Tura parliamentary seat with a huge margin, but one cannot deny the fact that people’s sympathy for the late PA Sangma also played a major role in the NPP president reclaiming the seat which was last occupied by his father.
The other factor that will play a role in the NPP’s chance of winning some seats in the Khasi Jaintia region is because former senior congress MLAs whom the party had isolated were forced them to enter the NPP camp. The pertinent question is what change can the party hope to bring when it is welcoming the same old Congress warhorses to its fold. If the Congress has shown them the door then that itself speaks volume about the non-performance of the ousted leaders.
While the other parties are finding it difficult to put up candidates in all the constituencies, the Congress still has a problem of plenty as many party men and women are applying for tickets to the Party to contest from all the sixty constituencies. This time around the Congress also has better candidates to replace some of the ousted MLAs as it is evident that the Congress is putting up a former bureaucrat who has better qualification and much more experience in public service than the incumbent MLA from the Nartiang constituency. Jopthiaw Lyngdoh, IAS, is going to give the ousted Congressman Sniawbhalang Dhar a tough fight.
The Congress is also going to allot the party ticket to a young man with a degree in electronics engineering and experience in being the head of State Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (SRES) to contest against the MLA from Umroi constituency. George Lyngdoh who also has prior experience in politics from his late father E.K. Mawlong is therefore not a greenhorn in the political arena. He may not have the kind of money his opponent has but he certainly is more qualified and also has the experience and the acumen to be a leader. The Congress is also planning to put-up a bureaucrat who is currently applying for VRS to contest against the suspended member and CEM of KHADC. HM Shangpliang another high ranking IAS officer who hails from Mawsynram. He will give P.N. Syiem a tough fight in the ensuing election.
The Congress which has all along accommodated the mining lobby because most of the coal barons were part and parcel of the party then is now relieved of the pressure as most of the leaders have left the party to join the BJP. On the other hand it is also a blessing in disguise for the party because the business tycoons who are more of businessmen than politicians are no longer in the party fold. The Congress has been able to get rid of the businessmen in the garb of politicians from its fold and this is good for the party.
The other contender to the top spot is the alliance of the regional parties and no doubt its tally will improve but the prospect of the alliance in the Garo hills region is not very promising. The history of the GNC the alliance constituent from the Garo hills region is also not very hopeful as the party has barely won two or three seats in the last elections.
In the last few weeks and months both the BJP and the NPP claimed that the lucky or unlucky 7 MLAs have approached the party high command and expressed their desire to contest on their respective party’s ticket, but till now, except for the four ejected and one suspended MLA from the Congress, the independent MLAs who are also associate members of the Congress are still in a dilemma. The duo who have made public their plans to join the BJP are now uncertain of their fate as the BJP already has candidates who had worked hard to contest from their respective seats.
The other two Stephenson Mukhim and Hopeful Bamon have remained tight lipped about their next move, although some of Stephen’s leaders had recently joined NPP in Delhi. Hopeful is the only one who has not made any indication of his next move. Hopeful will certainly not get the Congress ticket because Shitlang Pale is still the strong contender for the party’s ticket, so Hopeful can again contest as an independent and he has the chance to win only if he has the support of Pala.
It is obvious now that the next election to the state assembly will be a four way fight and in any multi-cornered fight the incumbent party will always gain the upper hand. The only factor that will go against the Congress Party is the anti-incumbency factor, hence its success will depend very much on how it deals with it. If at all there is any party that is going to cross the magic number it will be the Congress. The Congress stands a good chance to at least be the Party which will win maximum numbers of seat and the saying which goes, ‘the more the merrier,’ will reverberate in all the Party’s rallies along the hills and valleys of the state.