From CK Nayak
NEW DELHI: Political bigwigs in the state as well as at the Centre are already chalking out strategies for a rational outcome after Saturday following prediction of a hung assembly by several exit polls and internal assessments showing a tough race to the one-third mark (20 seats) in the 60-member House.
A complex ethnic divide with a plethora of parties has led the state to deep uncertainties with regard to the electoral outcome in all the Assembly elections, including this one. In its political history, no party, not even the Congress that won the record 29 seats in the last Assembly polls, had ever got majority seats.
The Congress, the incumbent party in Meghalaya, had time and again claimed that they would win a majority but going by the political wave a 20-seat win for the Grand Old Party will be an achievement.
But Congress MP and coal baron Vincent H Pala, the working president of the state Congress leadership, was sure of a 30-seat victory. “We have received feedback from our party workers from across the state. Our party will get around 33 seats in Meghalaya,” he said confidently.
When asked about post-poll alliance with regional parties if the Congress fall short of majority to form the government, the wily MP only smiled mischievously.
The BJP, which is resolutely trying to make a “Congress-mukt Bharat”, is eyeing both Meghalaya and Mizoram that will go to polls by the end of the year. Though it cannot form the government singularly the party might go the Manipur way.
The NPP, if manages to win half the seats in Garo Hills, can make up for the remaining seats in Khasi-Jaintia Hills where the Congress seems to have revived after series of serious initial setbacks.
Even though Meghalaya is a small state, what makes this election special is that for the first time, national leaders across parties are taking a keen interest in the electoral politics of the state.
This multifaceted situation has put not only the Congress but also other regional parties in a peculiar situation. Each of them can go either way since none of them can form the government on its own.
The head of one leading regional party which once claimed to get 25 seats has already met a prominent leader of Congress party
to lay the foundation of coalition. Similar parleys are already on informally in capital Shillong.
In fact, most of the legislators of the regional parties were either with the Congress or with Purno Sangma. But barring the Congress, no national or regional party has presence in both Khasi-Jaintia and Garo Hills.
This has added to the uncertainties since in the small hill state with limited voters, candidates win or lose based on their personal appeal. There are leaders in all parties who win in whichever party in the state that is known for frequent defections.
The hill state also has a history of crucial post-electoral alliances. Though parties parley for electoral understanding much before the elections, they fail to arrive at any positive conclusion at the time of actual battle due to seat-sharing intransigence. However, post-election reality compels them to come together.
To the advantage of the Congress it has fielded candidates in all the constituencies, followed by the NPP in 52 constituencies, the BJP in 47 and the UDP in 35. Altogether, 15 political parties and 80 Independent candidates were in the poll battle who will decide the next government.
This has resulted in multi-cornered contests, creating an environment of unpredictability about the outcome. The constituencies are small and presence of so many contestants has made the voters really empowered as they have almost direct acquaintance with their candidates whose background they know well.
Much also depend on the performance of the non-traditional player BJP, which had no MLA in the last polls. Now led by former Cabinet minister AL Hek, even if it gets a handful of seats it can use its power at the Centre and presence in neighbouring states, Assam and most recently in Manipur, to prevent the Congress or any other non-BJP alternative to form a government.