The bluff of Sri Lanka’s crafty politician and former President, Mahinda Rajapaksa, has been called for now. India has temporary relief that the pro-China, suspected anti-India strongman in the neighbouring nation has been edged out in a trial of strength in Parliament. Meanwhile politics and governance in the island nation remain badly shattered by an attempt by Rajapaksa to grab power with clear backing from President Maithripala Sirisena. With the parliament passing a no-confidence motion against a week-long government headed by Rajapaksa in his new avatar as Prime Minister, there is no guarantee that the recently ousted government of Ranil Wikremesinghe could automatically get back to power. It is up to the President to play his cards again as to who would step in as Prime Minister, after the passing of the no-trust vote. Chances are also that Speaker Karu Jayasuriya could replace Rajapaksa who formed the government on October 26 last.
The President’s controversial acts have only added to the troubles on the political front in Sri Lanka. His abrupt dismissal of Wikeremesinghe and his government in late October was aimed principally at opening a window of opportunity to Rajapaksa, who lost the 2015 parliament polls, to return to power. With the Sri Lankan Supreme Court overturning the President’s subsequent decision to dissolve parliament and hold fresh elections on January 5, even as it had a life until 2020, the tide began turning against the Sirisena-Rajapaksa combine. The passing of the no-trust vote came a day later.
In recent years, India’s relations with Sri Lanka had undergone serious strains due to the perceived support that the separatist LTTE got from this side in the past. Having annihilated the Tamil Tigers, Rajapaksa had not only kept a distance from India but also took the nation closer to China in multiple ways. This gave an added opportunity to China to undercut India’s interests in this region. Wickremesinghe by contrast, tried furthering ties with India and looked at loans offered to the island nation from China as a kind of a bait.
Problem however is Wickremesinghe and his party, as also the ruling alliance, is fast losing popularity due to his “failure” to lift the economy to satisfactory levels. The recent local body polls saw his side losing heavily, with the Rajapaksa side registering massive wins. Having gauged the people’s mood, both Sirisena and Rajapaksa thought it was time to pull down the government and facilitate an early return of the former president to power. India is understandably, concerned.