Monday, December 23, 2024
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MAJOR SETBACK LIKELY IN UTTAR PRADESH

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 By Gyan Pathak

 

The fifth phase of Lok Sabha Election is marked by no holds barred election campaign. It has reached a new low, and even our Prime Minister is not without blemish, though EC has given him a clean chit. The BJP is doing whatever it could to save its majority, but it is too late by now. Elections to the 374 out of 543 seats are already over in the first four phases. NDA, UPA, and Others could hope to win 140, 130, and 104 seats respectively indicating a strong possibility of emergence of a new fragile political realignment in India this month.

The main contenders are of course the BJP and the INC, and both of them are most likely to end up winning only 111 and 97 seats respectively in the first four phases, which are much less than even half of the magic number 272 required for majority to form the government. Since only 169 constituencies are now left to undergo polls in the last three phases, neither of their alliances can even hope for majority, and hence the regional parties are to play kingmakers. TDP and YSRCP of Andhra Pradesh, BJD of Odisha, and TRS of Telangana have already emerged as major players.

It is in this backdrop, 51 constituencies are going to poll in the fifth phase on May 6 spread over seven states. Most of these seats are presently held by NDA, and therefore, it has the largest stake. BSP, SP, and AITC are likely to emerge as kingmakers in this phase, while INC has great hopes of winning several seats which are presently held by the BJP.

Five seats of Bihar will be polling in this phase. NDA has been eyeing for more seats from this state compared to the last general election. They were claiming to win 35 out of 40 seats. However, the election held for 19 seats in the first four phases indicates that the alliance is likely to win only seven, and 12 seats may go to UPA. RJD and JD(U) candidates are locked in close contest in Sitamarhi which was held by BLSP in 2014. Saran seat was won by a thin margin of 4.85 per cent by BJP last time which the party is struggling to retain. The same is the case in Madhubani which it had won by a margin of only 2.44 per cent. There are only two seats, Muzaffarpur and Hajipur, which are considered to be safe for BJP and LJP respectively.

Election in Jammu and Kashmir will be over with polling in Anantnag and Ladakh. PDP is most likely to retain Anantnag, but BJP may lose Ladakh which it had won by a wafer thin margin of 0.03 per cent in 2014. In final reckoning, the state is most likely to send two BJP, two PDP, and one NC member in the Lok Sabha.

Four constituencies – Kodarma, Ranchi, Khunti, and Hazaribabh – of Jharkhand will elect their MPs. These are presently held by BJP, but they are running the risk of losing Ranchi and Kodarma seats this time to INC and JVM. The party is also fighting a tough battle in Khunti too with INC. The BJP may be sure to win only one seat – Hazaribagh.

All the seven seats going to poll in Madhya Pradesh are held by BJP. The party seems to be comfortable in Betul, Hoshangabad, Khajuraho, and Tikamgarh, but is running the risk of losing Satna which it had won by a very small margin of only 0.96 per cent in 2014. Rewa and Damoh constituencies are witnessing a tough fight between BJP and INC.

With polling in 12 constituencies, the election in Rajasthan will be over in this phase. All the seats in the state are presently held by BJP.  The party seems to be losing Karaui-Dholpur, Dausa, and Nagaur seats to INC, but seems to be comfortable in Bikaner, Churu, Jaipur Rural, Jaipur, Alwar, and Bharatpur. Ganganagar, Jhunjhunu, and Sikar are witnessing close contests between INC and the BJP. In final reckoning, INC is set to wrest nine seats from the BJP which had won all the 25 seats. INC can hope to win even a couple of seats more where there are close fights between the two.

BJP is fighting its toughest political battle in Uttar Pradesh where it has the highest stake. Fourteen constituencies of the state are going to poll in this phase. Barring Rae Bareli and Amethi, all the seats are presently held by BJP. INC is most likely to retain Rae Bareli and Amethi seats, but the BJP is most likely to lose Sitapur, Kaushambi, Bahraich, and Kaiserganj to SP-BSP alliance. BJP is struggling to retain Dhauraha, Mohanlalganj, and Banda where SP-BSP seems to have slight edge. However, the party is most likely to retain Lucknow, Fatehpur, Barabanki, Faizabad, and Gonda. Uttar Pradesh is thus presenting frustrating moments for the BJP.

Seven seats – Bangaon, Barrackpore, Howrah, Uluberia, Srerampur, Hooghly, and Arambagh – of West Bengal are going to vote in this phase. All seats are presently held by AITC, is likely to will all of them again. The party is, however, contesting tough fights in Bangaon and Srerampur where it is caught in a triangular fight with the Left Front and the BJP. (IPA Service)

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