The nation is set on a new government-making agenda. The Lok Sabha poll campaign and voting are mostly over. Of the seven-phase voting, five are over. The move on the part of the some 21 non-BJP political parties to approach President Ram Nath Kovind to forestall a likely effort by the BJP and PM Modi to return to power is significant. This comes amid a realisation that no party will get a majority of 272 seats in a house of 543. The Modi government has not enthused the voters enough to affirmatively give it another term.
The Congress party is still in a revival mode, and failed to energise the masses to a level where they would blindly give it a majority.
For the trained eye, there is neither a pro-incumbency nor anti-incumbency mood. After the five-state polls which saw the Congress recapturing power in the Hindi-heartland, the BJP and the PM were on the run for cover. The Congress seized the moment with a major pro-farmer step in the form of waiving of farmer loans. The demonetisation failure of the NDA to rev up the industrial and farm sectors, and the lack of job opportunities to youths in the formal sector all had added to the disappointment of the masses. Then came Pulwama, followed by Balakot. It is still a moot point as to how successful the IAF operation was, but overall it likely gave those in the Hindi belt a new mood to give some marks to Modi. Yet, notably, this positive mood towards the PM fell short of a wave. Herein lies hope for the Opposition parties that they could, somehow, grab power through a hastily arranged and broad-based coalition.
A worry for them is that even in the emerging scenario, the BJP might steal the thunder by emerging as the single largest party. As per convention, in the event of no party or pre-poll alliance of parties getting a majority, the option before the President – or Governors in states – is to give the party with the largest share of elected members the first chance. The advantage for such a party is that once a government is formed, horse-trading is easy and more MPs can be more easily “purchased” to win a vote of confidence. This, thus, is a fait accompli.
A long-established practice might not be easily changed unless a new situation so warrants. It is for the Opposition to prove that there arose such a situation.