New Delhi: Most exit polls on Sunday forecast another term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, with some of them projecting that BJP-led NDA will get more than 300 seats to comfortably cross the majority mark of 272 in the Lok Sabha.
Exit polls were, however, divided in their prediction for the politically most crucial state of Uttar Pradesh with some like ABP-Nielsen saying that the BJP’s tally may fall to 22 from 71 while a few others like News 18-Ipsos and News 24-Chanakya tipping its tally over 60 seats.
The saffron party appeared to make major gains in eastern states of West Bengal and Odisha.
Exit polls by News 18-Ipsos, India Today-Axis and News 24-Chanakya projected 336, 339-368 and 336-364 seats respectively for the NDA, with the BJP tipped to cross the majority on its own for another term after the 2014 polls.
However, two exit polls – one by ABP News-Nielsen and another by Neta-News X – said the ruling alliance may fall short of a majority.
ABP News forecast 267 while NewsX predicted 242 seats for the ruling NDA.
Elections to 542 seats of the 543-member Lok Sabha ended on Sunday.
The Election Commission has deferred election for Vellore in Tamil Nadu over allegations of misuse of money power.
The counting of votes is slated for May 23.
Some of the polls put the NDA’s vote share at more than 40 per cent, with News18-Ipsos giving 49 per cent to the ruling alliance, which had garnered close to 39 per cent votes in 2014.
Times Now telecast two exit polls giving the NDA 296 and 306 seats, while projecting 126 and 132 for the Congress-led UPA.
News 18-Ipsos, India Today-Axis and News 24-Chanakya have predicted 82, 77-108 and 86-104 seats for the Congress-led UPA, with the main opposition party likely to improve on its all-time low of 44 seats but still set to fall to a poor second this time as well.
The CVoter-Republic exit poll has forecast 287 and 128 seats for the NDA and UPA respectively. ABP News-Nielsen and Neta-NewsX predicted 127 and 164 seats respectively for the UPA. The CNN News18-Ipsos projected only 46 seats for the Congress and 82 for its allies.
In 2014, the NDA had won 336 seats and the Congress 44. The BJP had notched up its maiden majority by bagging 282 seats.
Some exit polls predicted that the SP-BSP alliance is likely to trump the BJP in Uttar Pradesh. The BJP had won 71 and its ally Apna Dal two of its 80 seats in 2014.
The CVoter-Republic forecast gave the grand alliance in UP 40 seats against 38 for the NDA, while the Jan Ki Baat said the NDA may win 46-57 seats against 15-29 of the SP-BSP combine.
ABP News predicted a huge loss for the BJP in the state, saying it may get only 22 seats while the opposition alliance may emerge victorious in 56 constituencies.
On West Bengal’s 42 seats, CVoter-Republic and ABP respectively gave 11 and 16 to the BJP, a big improvement on its tally of two in 2014. News channel ABP said the BJP may win nine seats in Odisha. It had won only one in 2014.
Polling ends
Voting for the marathon seven-phased Lok Sabha elections came to a close on Sunday as 64.26 per cent turnout was recorded in the last phase of polls in 59 seats, which also featured Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s constituency Varanasi. (Full report on P-5)
The highest ever voter turnout for a Lok Sabha election at 66.40 per cent was recorded in 2014. The cumulative turnout for the first six phases stood at 67.34 per cent, which is 1.21 percentage point more than the 2014 figures in corresponding seats. The Election Commission has so far not provided the overall polling percentage for all the seven phases.
Over 8,000 candidates are in the fray for the 542 Lok Sabha seats across the country in the Lok Sabha elections. The fate of all political parties in the fray will be decided on May 23 and most importantly it will determine whether the Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led BJP government can secure a majority of its own for the second time or the Congress-led opposition can stage a surprise comeback. (Agencies)
What is an exit poll?
What is an exit poll?An exit poll is a poll of voters conducted soon after they walk out having cast their vote. Conducted by a number of organisations, these post-voting polls ask voters for whom they actually voted, unlike opinion polls that ask voters for whom they plan to vote. The aim is to predict the actual result of the elections based on the feedback from the voters. Pinch of saltSome recent election results have been correctly predicted by exit polls. However, there have been enough number of times when they have proved unreliable to remind us to take them with a pinch of salt. In the recent past, two back-to-back misses had strained their credibility. Perhaps the biggest miss for exit polls was the 2004 Lok Sabha elections. Almost every pollster had predicted a landslide victory for the ruling BJP-led NDA alliance. However, when the results came out, the NDA was reduced to 189 seats — against predictions ranging between 230 and 275 seats. Instead, the Congress-led coalition won 222 seats and formed the government.The 2009 general elections proved to be another failure. Exit polls had suggested an equal contest between the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) and the NDA. Instead, the UPA ended up winning 262 seats and the NDA 159.