This here is time for stock-taking vis-a-vis the state of the national economy and how India takes its cautious yet promising steps forward. The Economic Survey report presented by finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman in Parliament on Thursday will be followed by the presentation of the Annual Budget on Friday. A seven per cent growth is projected, which looks moderate but doable. There are the other feel-good factors, like a reiteration of the Modi government’s plan to turn India into a $5 trillion economy in the next five years – still a far cry from China’s present $13trillion and US’ 19 trillion.
The Government’s aim to reach the benefits of the economic growth to one and all is evident when the report cited Mahatma Gandhi’s message, “Recall the face of the poorest individual and ask for yourself if the steps you contemplate is of any use to him or her.” It also lays stress on hastening economic growth by providing stronger support to big firms – a break from the socialist era contempt towards private sector.
In this context, the report also notes that the MSMEs must be freed from the shackles that converted them into dwarfs. “MSMEs need to be seen as a source of innovation, growth and job creation.” Put together, the manufacturing sector would require a much-needed fillip. This was unlike the past few years when the growth was marginal. The result of this was that job creation was to the minimum in the traditional sectors, though the services sector took giant leaps in creating such opportunities. Both these aspects need be taken note of for a realistic assessment of the scenario. The survey also stressed the need for a minimum wage policy for bottom rung of wage earners in ways also as to drive up demand and strengthen the purchasing power of the burgeoning middle class.
Two other aspects need special note. One, the contention that India will enjoy the “demographic dividend” phase in the next two decades, meaning population growth would be helping the nation in positive ways in this phase. At the same time, it is noted that some states would start transition into an ageing society some 10 years hence – which would exert pressure on the exchequer in terms of health care. Two, the report projects that India is moving forward from the Swachch Bharat phase in the past five years to a more promising Swasth and Sundar Bharat period. The first is still a work in progress, though.