What’s clear by now is that there is no love lost between Nepal and India. Adopting a tough stand, the Sharma Oli-led Communist government in Nepal has taken matters to a head by getting parliamentary clearance for its new map that includes a part of land in India’s possession in Ladakh region.
While the nod for the step has come from the lower house, it will be a matter of time before a similar nod comes from the upper house as well. Significantly, there was near-unanimity for the government’s stand – on claiming right over a substantial part of the land which Nepal claims it gave to India on a temporary basis to set up a military base long ago. The erection of an 80-km road by India to facilitate easier movement of pilgrims to the Hindu pilgrim centre of Manasarovar has come as a major provocation for Nepal.
It is well-known that Nepal has begun straying from Indian orbit from the start of this century – after the palace coup and murder of long-time ruler King Birendra and a short term by his brother. Monarchy out, the fraternal ties between the two sides progressively took a downslide under the democratically elected governments. The decision by the Nepal government to change the character of the nation from being a Hindu nation also led to a worsening of ties between Nepal and the Modi government.
China is clearly in the picture; it is offering to mediate between Nepal and India now. With its new-found economic clout, China is wooing nation after nation in the geopolitical region. It weaned away Sri Lanka from India in the context of the LTTE offensives, then edged closer to Pakistan through financial support to major infrastructure projects including the CPEC and Belt and Road initiative, and Nepal is being drawn into such a situation now.
It remains to be seen how India will respond to Nepal’s claim. Defence minister Rajnath Singh used strong words against Nepal’s provocative action. The firing from the Nepal side along the border region the other day has added an altogether new dimension to the frayed relations between the two countries. A progressive worsening of the relations is likely, though it seems a section of the ruling Communist party led by revolutionary leader and former PM Prachanda, is more in a mood to talk things over. India will have to play its cards with extreme care as it cannot afford to allow Nepal to go the Chinese way.