The battle lines in Bihar are being drawn by rival political formations, with the ruling JDU and the BJP arriving at a seat-sharing formula, which has serious political implications for the future. The post-poll scene is bound to be more challenging than it is today due to a variety of newly emerging factors. For one, while the JDU will contest 122 seats, the BJP will field candidates in 121 seats. They are rather on an equal footing as of now in terms of constituency-sharing.
There is curiosity as to what the final outcome will be, especially as to whether the JDU leader Nitish Kumar will be able to retain the CM’s post even if this alliance manages to win the polls with a majority in the state assembly. If the BJP wins more seats than the JDU, it will spell the end of the Nitish Kumar rule in the state. Nitish started his innings as CM since 2005, and except for brief disruptions, remained in the saddle all along.
The BJP is bent on grabbing power in more states, and neutralizing its allies. Its come-what-may stand in Punjab, for instance, where no attempt was made to soothe the hurt feelings of the Shiromani Akali Dal on the farmers’ bill issue, and allowing SAD to go its way with no olive branch being extended to it was noteworthy. This, despite the fact that SAD has been an ally of the BJP for long.
The scene in Bihar is far from clear though. In the absence of jailed Lalu Prasad from the campaign this time, his family will run the show and provide a youthful face to the contest. By contrast, Nitish has a tired face due to his long innings in governance. If the BJP steals the wind out of the sails of Nitish Kumar, the prospects of some Union ministers being airlifted to become the CM in the state are high.
There is every possibility that the people could vote for change this time. The positive factor that could still help Nitish is the infrastructure development work he has undertaken in the state, changing the face of Bihar from its past hopeless levels, in terms of road access, drinking water facility to villages etc. His unassuming nature is to his advantage even after his long innings as chief minister. What would be of interest this time is whether the Congress party can revive its fortunes in association with the RJD, and where the LJP of Ramvilas Pawan – in a lone fight would finally end up with.