The assembly election scene in Bihar is warming up further with the first phase of polling over and the second phase set to start. Despite opinion polls repeatedly claiming that the BJP-NDA alliance is bouncing back to power, the scenario is one of uncertainty as is the case with all polls.
As the campaign progresses, there is ground to suspect the Nitish Kumar-led poll juggernaut is facing serious odds. The chief minister himself feels the pinch on the campaign front and is increasingly becoming restless. The reasons are not far to seek. For one, the BJP that is contesting about as many seats as the Janata Dal United is reportedly aiming to grab the CM post if a situation favours such a switch-over. The BJP did better than the JDU in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. Opinion polls say PM Modi is more popular in the state than the CM who ruled the state for the past 15 years with only a short break. Opinion polls are not the last word and they on occasions have a tendency to misrepresent facts. The reality on the ground could be different.
There is some justification on the part of RJD leader Tejaswi Yadav that Nitish by now has a tired appearance. There is a noticeable complacence on the part of the CM in recent years — a sharp contrast to the energetic manner in which he took on the Lalu Prasad enterprise, made Lalu bite the dust and later end up in jail over corruption cases. Nitish Kumar as CM was also credited with restoration of law and order. But all these are past credits. Nitish’s handling of the Covid scenario in the state left much to be desired. He blinked when migrant labour from the state raised a hue and cry for help to return home. This is what his opponents are now screaming aloud. No leader can rest his oars on past laurels. People are concerned about the present, and tend to forget the past. Trust BJP this time to urge Nitish to take some rest if his stock falls in the three-phase polls. The BJP is now singing a different tune, though. Its leaders have gone on record to say the party will back Nitish for the CM’s post. The post election scenario works on an altogether different dynamic. Nitish himself knows as much; a reason also why he is losing his calm and composure.
What seems to work at the ground level is also LJP leader Chirag Paswan’s decision to contest the polls alone, outside of the NDA framework, and fight the JDU in all the seats that Nitish Kumar’s party has put up candidates. Many suspect there is a hidden understanding between BJP and Chirag, to spite Nitish. Chirag made it clear, though, that he might even have post-poll alliances with Tejaswi to rob Nitish of the CM’s post.