By Arun Srivastava
The eighth round of bilateral talks between China and India are likely to take place once the result of the USA presidential election is announced. It is the outcome of the election that will define the nature of the relations between the two countries. If the present mood of the electorate is any indicator, then it can be safely presumed that Joe Biden would be the next president of the USA. With Biden as the new ruler, America will witness many significant changes and reforms in the policies and programmes being followed. The most important that is likely to take place is changing the character and orientation of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad).
After the seventh round of talks, a joint statement issued by India and China had said: “Both sides agreed to maintain dialogue and communication through military and diplomatic channels, and arrive at a mutually acceptable solution for disengagement as early as possible. Both sides agreed to earnestly implement the important understandings reached by the leaders of the two countries, not to turn differences into disputes, and jointly safeguard peace and tranquility in the border areas.”
Expecting a change in the guard, the Modi government has already launched the exercise to rebuild its relations with the USA. India’s bilateral relations with America were based on certain fundamental political and economic parameters. But during the presidency of Donald Trump they were ignored. It was the personal liking and disliking of Trump and Narendra Modi that defined the character and nature of the relation. Trump made India to follow his line and perform proxy for him.
As a part of the exercise, the Modi government is trying to tap hitherto little used sources of support for the Indo-US relationship which are to be leveraged once a new establishment occupies Washington. There is a vast difference between former PM, PV Narasimha Rao’s landmark decision 25 years ago to break with tradition and appoint lobbyists for India.
The reason was quite perceptible. For Rao the interest of the country was the top priority, but for Modi his rightist liking and personal loyalty to Trump scored over national interest. For other countries mending ways with new incumbent would not be of much constraint. But for India it would be a tough task. Modi prefers to play proxy for his friend even risking the interest of India. The external affairs mandarins claim that New Delhi is using the current phase to consolidate past gains and course-correct its policies on the ground. An insight into the past does not throw sufficient light on the gains that India made under Trump.
There is a populist impression about the “Howdy-Modi” extravaganza in Houston failed to serve Indian interest. It is murmured that Donald Trump did not have a clue about the Houston reception for Narendra Modi until a few weeks before the actual event. Trump agreed to become a part of the programme after he heard about it from Modi at one of their bilateral meetings. Trump later used the opportunity to outreach to Indian Americans.
Whether it is Trump or Biden, who will occupy the White House in the next four years, the priority of the next US administration will be trans-Atlantic ties, its own neighbourhood, Russia, China, Japan, the Middle East and the like. Not India. This fact is known to Indian diplomats.
By pledging India’s loyalty to the individual Trump the prime minister has put the Indian interest in jeopardy. The policy of Modi has created fissures in the Indian American society. Some new organisations have been floated with the aim to support Biden. Alongside Indian Americans for Biden and the campaign’s Asian American Pacific Islander (AAPI) Outreach, Hindu Americans for Biden comes in a long line of ever-shifting campaign categorisations, reflecting ongoing identity contestations in the community.
At some level India is finding it tough to commit at this stage. But the signs emerging make it imperative that India cannot be seen as sitting on the fence. It has to compensate for the wrongs of the policy makers. Since Biden is not likely to follow Trump’s line on China, Modi will have to reconsider his stand.
Peaceful development and win-win cooperation are the only right path forward. The Indo-Pacific strategy, a pet project of the Trump administration is widely perceived to be part of Washington’s China-containment policy, and India’s engagement with it is seen by experts as one of the irritants that have crept into the bilateral relationship with China even before the face-off along the Line of Actual Control.
India can no more follow the Trump line. Trump was working on the plan to use India as proxy under Indo Pacific strategy. India was supposed to confront China. Now in the existing situation the primary task will be to elevate the real partnership between the two countries to a higher level under the next administration.
The worst affected of the new administrative change in USA would be the Quad or the Quadrilateral Security Framework. Only a few days ago, Delhi announced the much-awaited expansion of the annual Malabar exercises with the US and Japan to include Australia. This is not the first time we are seeing an acceleration of the engagement between Delhi and Washington. The USA has been trying to play the emotion card of killing of 20 Indian army personnel by Chinese forces.
Both US secretary of state Mike Pompeo and secretary of defence Mark T. Esper brought up China in their remarks to the media with the former making a specific reference to the 20 Indian soldiers killed in the Galwan Valley clash. Pompeo honouring the brave soldiers said; “The US will stand with the people of India as they confront threats to their sovereignty and to their liberty”. China must have noted this burst of the U.S. secretary of state from the New Delhi meeting.
India-US ties will move forward but there will be imponderables ahead, principally arising out of US strategies towards China. Also, because of the relook that a Biden Presidency will give on China policy. India will also have to review the Quad and Malabar templates.
(IPA Service)