In Bihar as well as in the eleven states that went for assembly by-polls, the BJP has performed well; this being the first round of elections after the start of the Covid pandemic some eight months ago. As the counting progressed in the ‘Bihar Decides’ exercise, Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has taken a beating. His party that resolutely bargained and got as many seats as the BJP for the 243-member assembly polls would now settle for much less the size of the BJP strength in the new assembly.
Granted that the LJP of Chirag Paswan purposely ate into the JDU votes with a view to spiting the “arrogance” of Kumar, the palpable “disinterest” of wider sections of the electorate was there to see too. In power for 15 years, even as he did a reasonably good job as CM, people seemed tired of him. That he has understood this was evident from his public pronouncement that this would be his last election. The BJP emerged stronger and can be trusted to put Kumar on notice.
At this point, it must be noted that the opinion polls proved correct in that Prime Minister Modi is more popular in Bihar than Kumar. Many thought this would be an unlikely scenario. Modi’s three rounds of campaign in Bihar might have helped the NDA alliance immensely and offset the anti-incumbency factor there.
The massive response that RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav got in his campaign rallies had a footnote; the crowds composed mainly of the two segments of the population, Yadavs and the Muslims – the RJD’s core support base. This alerted the rest of the electorate. They suspected that a gang-up similar to the one in the past led by strongman Lalu Prasad might emerge again.
The Congress suffered heavily, and a part of the anti-BJP votes went to the Left in areas where they have a traditional foothold – spread over some 40 constituencies. The Left did well in about 20 of these constituencies; mostly the CPIML. Clearly, Rahul Gandhi could not make any impact even as he was willing to play second fiddle to the young regional leader Tejashwi. Notably, the Congress show in the 11 states that went to assembly by-polls too turned out to be miserable. Principally so in Madhya Pradesh, where the Scindia men rode back to the assembly as BJP nominees this time.
Significantly, gain or loss, this assembly election saw a new generation of leadership emerging in the state; they are bound to gain steam and call the shots in the future. Dynasties, though, are not good for democracy.
