China is breathing down India’s neck. New problems crop up when old issues remain unsettled. The latest is its plan to construct a new dam in Tibet, which will affect the flow of water in the Brahmaputra to large reaches of India and Bangladesh. As of now, China is not taking a confrontationist stand on this and says it would discuss and sort out matters before proceeding with the plan. Yet, the Chinese leadership is unpredictable and what it would do tomorrow is anybody’s guess.
The dam, planned at Medog in the lower reaches of the river close to Arunachal Pradesh, would come near the Line of Actual Control, a sensitive region. China’s foreign ministry states that while it is their legitimate right to explore potential for hydro-power exploration, it would “act in a responsible manner in relation to trans-border rivers like Yarlung Zangbo”, the name China accords to what is known in India as Brahmaputra. One of the world’s longest rivers, this is the lifeline to large swathes of Indian and Bangladesh populations. The plan for the new dam is part of the decisions taken by the Chinese Communist Party at its plenum last October as part of its 14th Five Year Plan push — meaning, it would be a reality in a scheduled time-frame.
While there are existing arrangements between the three countries for regulating the water flow and to issue flood alerts based on the discharge from above in critical situations, the same cannot be any guarantee for China’s future plans vis-à-vis exploiting the waters of this river or even controlling its flow to India and Bangladesh. Notably, China maintains good relations with Bangladesh and this could perhaps be a guarantee to responsible actions from the Chinese side in future, while India comes in between. Notably, India had already raised objections vis-à-vis the Zam hydro-power project in Tibet built by the Chinese in 2015, but China brushed aside the objections.
China is ruthless when it comes to pushing its interests. It has grabbed huge swathes of Indian land at different sectors along the Himalayan region in the 1962 War, and is in no mood to even discuss this matter. Periodic offensives come from the Chinese PLA in Ladakh and several other regions. What happened in Doklam in Bhutanese soil close to a sensitive Indian region is now behind us. Then came the Galwan Valley offensive in June last, which killed 20 Indian soldiers. India will take time to match its military strengths with the Chinese. These are tense times.