The negotiations for withdrawal of the farmer protests are reaching nowhere. Six rounds of talks since October 14 has yielded no result and the farmers are bent on stepping up the agitation. What the farmer leaders stated on Thursday was very much the same as they demanded at the start of the agitation; a repeal of the contentious laws. The government has agreed to consider some of their demands, mainly on continuation of the Minimum Support Price, but has firmly ruled out a repeal of the three-part farm reform laws.
A wholesale repeal of the major reform step is out of question. The government is highlighting the positive sides of the reform but the farmer leaders are not convinced. Clearly, politics is playing a role here and parties like the CPI-M and its small farmer organizations are also “actively” campaigning against the legislation.
Yet, from the government side too, it is politics that will dictate the final word. The local body polls in Rajasthan provided a barometer to gauge the public mood, especially in the rural areas where the fight is principally organised on behalf of the farmers. The BJP did much better than the ruling Congress party in these polls, the results of which were announced on Wednesday. If the BJP had any worry over the farmer reform measure turning the countryside against it, that fear is now gone. What this means is that the Centre is not going to budge before the farmers’ pressure tactics.
The Modi government is tactful, normally avoids a confrontation, and its strategy in such situations has been to tire out the agitators. It looks like, prima facie, this is what is happening now. The principal Opposition, the Congress party, is neither in a mood to jump in and lead the agitation nor does it have the moral courage to do so at this juncture. The Rajasthan results would add to the already weak mindset of the party even as Congress leader Rahul Gandhi is aiming arrows now and then at Modi and speaking in favour of the farmers’ demands.
Two states where the farmers are in a fighting mood are Punjab and Haryana. Punjab is with the Congress. Haryana is worth a watch. The regional outfit, the JJP that shares power with the BJP there, is a pro-Jat, pro-farmer entity. A couple of legislators have sided with the farmers but the government might not face a problem of stability yet. The agitation is weak in other states. Therein lies the rub.
