The Trinamool Congress is on the defensive in West Bengal after the group exit of several legislators of the party. Led by senior leader and right-hand man of Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, rebel leader Suvendu Adhikari, the MLAs and several functionaries of local bodies acted in unison to embarrass the chief minister and the party. This, significantly, in the run-up to the May Assembly polls for which the Election Commission’s initial steps have begun. Clearly, the BJP has got a fresh shot in the arm in its attempt to turn the electoral tables on Mamata Banerjee. At the same time, a close study of the defection drama shows many, if not all, of them feared sidelining in the TMC for one reason or the other.
Election strategist Prashant Kishor clearly played a role in hastening the exit of these leaders from the party. He had expressed the view to the CM that about half the MLAs would need be replaced in the next TMC candidate list for the assembly polls. An organisational revamp too along the lines recommended by Kishor sent shivers down the spines of local level functionaries. Under the circumstances, it was easy for the BJP to exploit the situation to its advantage. Yet, what needs be noted is also that Mamata Banerjee won polls exclusively on the basis of her personal charisma and direct appeal among the masses. She still stands head and shoulders above other leaders in the state.
What must also not escape attention is that the TMC is essentially a party of defectors from other parties like the CPI-M and the Congress. That was how she scripted the obituaries for these two parties in West Bengal. Defection being written in the DNA of the TMC this could happen again. How many more would defect to the BJP in the coming weeks is anyone’s guess. BJP has money power and manipulative edge because of its hold at the Centre.
Mamata ably fought against PM Modi and the BJP for long. She can be trusted to fight back until her last breath, though this is affecting the development aspirations of West Bengal. She has already got in touch with veteran Opposition politicians like Sharad Pawar to open a united front against the BJP, Modi and home minister Amit Shah.
What gives hope to the BJP is the fact that it has won nearly as many seats as the TMC in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. The dynamics for LS polls and assembly polls differ but it is doubtful if Mamata can keep her flock together. Having come this far, Amit Shah is bound to go for the kill.
