Democracy has again taken a hit in Myanmar, and it came predictably from the military that had ruled the nation for many years. Having tasted blood, the military was unable to digest the people’s power and was waiting for an opportunity. The November 2020 parliamentary elections reinforced the popular support for the National League for Democracy (NLD) and its Independence leader Aung San Suu Kyi.
In fact, the past 10 years of a functional democracy in Myanmar have only reinforced people’s support for the NLD, while the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) propped up by the military as a counter to the NLD, bit the dust in the November polls too. That failure, however, turned out to be fodder for the military to interfere in the affairs of the nation afresh and take matters to a head. This resulted in the seizure of power and declaration of Emergency at the hands of the military top brass in the form of a vice president. It led to the arrest of Suu Kyi who was with the government in the form of state counselor and several others.
Notably, issues had affected the parliamentary polls, with the Rohingya exodus following a massive military crackdown resulting in their disenfranchisement. On the other side, there were problems posed by the Arakan army composed of Buddhist Rakhine ethnic minority recruits seeking regional autonomy for some parts of Myanmar. All these have come in handy for army chief Min Aung Hlaing to allege serious irregularities in the November polls; the script coming from USDP that sought a poll rerun. By February 1, Suu Kyi, President Win Myint and other top NLD leaders have been detained with a diktat from the military that it would rule the nation for a year.
India has reasons to be wary. The military has always maintained close relations with China, much to the concern of nations like India as also the US. At the same time, China was engaging the NLD and its government too by supporting infrastructure projects and helping them with funds etc. The Chinese leadership has called for restraint by all sides.
How the scenario develops there requires a close watch. Curiously, the coup has come shortly after the installation of a new administration in the US. The US had done some muscle-flexing with the military in Myanmar in the past in support of the people’s urge for democracy to take hold there. Indications are that the military will remain in power not just for a year but longer.