Nepal has been facing political uncertainties for two decades ever since the exit of the ‘benevolent’ monarchy there. A new phase of fight between the rival political establishments is currently on. The dissolution of parliament two days ago by President Bidya Bhandari after rival sides claimed majority support was the only sensible way forward. Hope is that the elections called for the year-end might show some light at the end of the shadowy tunnel.Prime Minister Sharma Oli has repeatedly proven to be a burden on the nation because of his failure to carry the people along. The Opposition too is faced with serious handicaps and unity among various stake-holders is what can help the nation move ahead. Nepal had a peaceful existence till the time of King Birendra, the monarch having maintained the fraternal relations between the Himalayan kingdom and India. The assassination of Birendra in a palace coup saw power going into the hands of his brother for a short period. This was followed by elections and the rise to power of the Communists. All these have only shaken the confidence of the people in the establishment.
After Birendra’s exit, China was waiting in the wings to build bridges with the new powers-that-be. Beijing succeeded to an extent and Oli, ever since his first term as PM from 2015, showed an inclination to move closer to China and away from India. His second term starting in 2018 after Nepal adopted its new secular Constitution further strengthened such a push. On the other side, veteran Communist leader Prachanda is among those who favour continued good relations with India. The coming elections could see who will take the upper hand.
The economic blockade that India imposed on Nepal in 2015 had to do with three principal issues. One, the shift of Nepal from a Hindu nation to a secular one under the new Constitution; two, the close ties Oli started building with China at the cost of traditional ally India; and three, the alleged maltreatment of the Madhesis – the people settled in the plains along Nepal’s border whose ancestors were mostly Indians. There are perceptions that the Modi government’s blockade, though a brief one, has set the Nepalis against India, or that India played into the hands of Oli.China being what it is, the reds could not resist their normal temptation of land grab when it came to Nepal too. Recent reports about China uprooting the border fences in Daulkha village are a case in point. The Chinese actions have often raised tensions in Nepal. India must go out of its way to maintain friendly ties with Nepal.
