KANPUR, June 21: An expert team of IIT Kanpur has predicted three scenarios in the country over the possible third wave of COVID-19 between September and October this year.
The team claims that there is a significant anxiety among policy makers and public about the third wave.
“For the same, using SIR model, we have constructed the following three scenarios of a possible third wave using the epidemic parameters of the second wave. We assume that India is fully unlocked on July 15,” said the team members Prof Rajesh Ranjan and Prof Mahendra Verma in a statement here on Monday.
They say that in Scenario 1 the third wave will peak in October but with a lower peak height than the second wave.
In Scenario 2 the peak could be higher than the second one and may appear early September while in Scenario 3 the peak of the third wave could be delayed until late October with strict physical distancing. Here too, the peak will be lower than the second wave.
The IIT-Kanpur team in its key observations over the current pandemic situation claimed that the second wave has waned out significantly almost in every state except in some Northeastern states like Mizoram, Manipur and Sikkim.
“India’s average daily case count has reduced significantly. As on June 19, it is 63,000 compared to the peak of about 4 lakh. Besides most states have daily Test Positivity Rate (TPR) less than WHO recommended level of 5%. However, Kerala, Goa, Sikkim and Meghalaya still have high daily TPR of 10% or more,” it said.
“India’s daily Case Fatality Rate (CFR) has increased recently to 3.5%, but cumulative CFR of the second wave is comparable to that of the first wave,” the team said.
The expert team said vaccination is known to break the transmission chain.
“At present, the model does not include vaccination, which should decrease the peak significantly. Revised model with vaccination and with more recent data on the same is being worked out,” they said. (UNI)
